Democrat Mary Peltola has taken a 6-point lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska, as observed in a recent poll. This development comes three weeks before Election Day and precedes President Donald Trump’s planned visit to Alaska to support Sullivan. Sullivan’s earlier advantage from his connection to Trump seems to be impacting him negatively, as the president’s popularity wanes in Alaska.
Peltola’s campaign has managed to weather previous allegations from former staff accusing her of using slurs and having angry outbursts during her time in the House of Representatives. Her campaign attributes these to her grief from the loss of her husband and mother within months. Democrats are eyeing Alaska as a potential win to regain control of the Senate, alongside contests in Texas, Maine, and other Republican areas.
“Mary welcomes any President visiting the state to hear about the issues Alaskans are facing, and she looks forward to working with President Trump to unleash Alaska energy and lower costs for when she’s elected to the United States Senate,” her campaign spokesperson stated. “It doesn’t matter who flies in to try and save Dan Sullivan from his abhorrent record, Alaskans will still hold him accountable for his price hiking agenda this November.”
Sullivan’s support for the war in Iran and his economic policies have become focal points for Peltola’s campaign. Polls show Peltola ahead with 48.2% in the first round of Alaska’s ranked choice voting against Sullivan’s 42.6%, and 50.1% in the potential final round compared to Sullivan’s 48%.
An additional poll by Alaska Survey Research found Peltola leading 51% to Sullivan’s 49% in the final round. Despite some polls favoring Sullivan earlier in the year, Peltola has consistently maintained a slight lead in a state typically supporting GOP candidates in federal elections.
According to Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, “Alaska is affected by the favorable Democratic environment prevalent in various states, with Peltola being a formidable challenger.” Alaska’s new ranked choice voting system, which was not used in 2020, also potentially benefits Peltola as the sole Democratic candidate.
Prediction Markets Outlook
Prediction markets suggest a downtrend for Sullivan. On Polymarket, Peltola holds a 72.5% chance of winning compared to Sullivan’s 28.5%. Similarly, Kalshi shows Peltola at 75% versus Sullivan’s 27%, indicating stronger market confidence in Peltola’s prospects despite tighter polling data.
Trump’s Alaska Rally Scheduled
Trump is due to continue his midterm campaign tour with a rally in Wasilla on October 13. The event aims to bolster Senator Dan Sullivan’s reelection. Despite Trump winning Alaska comfortably in 2024, his approval has diminished, primarily due to economic concerns and Sullivan’s backing of military actions in Iran.
Vice President JD Vance also visited Fairbanks to support Sullivan, warning of potential Democratic electoral manipulation.
Significance of the Alaska Senate Race
Since 2014, Republicans have controlled both of Alaska’s U.S. Senate seats, with Sullivan securing the seat this cycle. Key to the Democrats’ strategy is flipping Sullivan’s seat alongside others to regain Senate control. Peltola’s state-wide election to the House in 2022 and recent shifts in voter sentiment create Democratic optimism.
Republicans still rely on Sullivan’s track record and Trump’s previous performance. This week’s rally represents a test of Trump’s influence in maintaining GOP control in Alaskan politics.
Newsweek sourced Martyn, an AI assistant, to assist in generating this story.
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