A recent poll reveals Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya are in a tight race for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat. Flanagan holds a narrow lead with 44% over Tafoya’s 42% among likely voters. This two-point gap places them in a statistical tie as the November midterms draw near.
The poll, conducted by TIPP/League of American Workers from August 31 to September 2, surveyed 1,201 likely voters. It found 4% supporting other candidates, 2% opting for someone else, and 8% undecided. The margin of error is 3%. Both candidates secured party nominations recently, leading to a general election contest for the seat vacated by Democratic Senator Tina Smith.
The League of American Workers, a conservative group led by former Trump adviser Steve Cortes, is not officially tied to the Republican Party. Midterm elections often indicate the political climate for the ruling party, with the president’s party historically losing seats during these elections. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House and Senate. The Cook Political Report categorizes the race as likely Democrat. Notably, Kamala Harris won Minnesota by about 4 points against Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
“Michele Tafoya would be nothing but a loyal soldier to Donald Trump. She supports his ICE and mass deportation agenda that led to two Minnesotans being killed, defended January 6 rioters who assaulted police officers and tried to overturn a free and fair election, and supports Trump’s reckless tariffs that are hammering farmers and driving up prices for everyone,” stated Lexi Byler, a spokesperson for Flanagan’s campaign, in an email to Newsweek.
In response, Tafoya commented on social media, “Our race is in play! Minnesotans are fed up with billions in taxpayer dollars being stolen while the people in charge refuse to take responsibility. Peggy Flanagan is the sitting lieutenant governor while criminals were stealing billions from Minnesota taxpayers. She doesn’t get to walk away from that record. Minnesotans deserve accountability. They deserve leadership. And they deserve better. This race is wide open. Let’s win it!”
Flanagan, Minnesota’s lieutenant governor, entered the general election as the Democratic nominee after defeating Angie Craig in the primary. Her victory over Craig was seen as a win for the Democratic Party’s more progressive faction. Flanagan received endorsements from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar.
Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, seeks to leverage her name recognition and outsider status for a statewide win. The race has drawn national interest as Republicans aim to gain ground in Minnesota, despite the state’s recent tendency to favor Democrats.
Previous polls showed Flanagan ahead by a larger margin. The new data suggests Tafoya has tightened the race. A two-point lead doesn’t guarantee a frontrunner, especially with two months to Election Day. Flanagan leads among Gen-Z, Millennials, females, Black, and Hispanic voters. Tafoya has support among those aged 45 and up, men, and white voters. Both candidates claim 37% of independents. Flanagan also leads registered voters by 2% with 40% to Tafoya’s 38% in another poll of 1,494 registered voters; margin of error is 2.7%.
Tafoya has a 34% favorable rating compared to 30% unfavorable, with 36% having no opinion. Flanagan’s favorability is 39% compared to 34% unfavorable, and 28% have no opinion. The survey queried Flanagan’s stance on gender transitions for minors.
Kalshi predicts a 90.5% chance of victory for Flanagan over Tafoya’s 9.5%, while Polymarket gives Flanagan a 94% chance compared to Tafoya’s 8%.
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