Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan holds a narrow lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race according to a recent poll, but her advantage is within the survey’s margin of error. This highlights a tight contest just two months before Election Day on November 3.
As Democrats aim to reclaim control of the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, the party must defend its current seats—including in two states won by President Donald Trump in his 2024 White House bid—and flip four others. Midterm elections often test the political landscape affecting the party in power, with the president’s party historically losing seats.
The Cook Political Report currently rates the Minnesota Senate race as likely Democrat.
Minnesota Senate Race
Flanagan and Tafoya are competing for the seat vacated by Democrat Tina Smith. Minnesota last elected a Republican senator in 2002 by backing Norm Coleman. In 2008, Coleman lost reelection to Democrat Al Franken.
Flanagan defeated Representative Angie Craig in the August primary, marking a victory for the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. Her campaign received support from independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar, exemplifying the ongoing divide between progressive and moderate Democrats.
Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, won the Republican nomination. She hopes her name recognition and outsider profile will secure a win. The race has drawn national attention as Republicans aim to make gains in Minnesota, despite Democrats’ strong statewide success in recent elections.
The Cook Political Report classified the race from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat in August. Vice President Kamala Harris won Minnesota by about 4 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election over Trump. In 2016, Minnesota supported Hillary Clinton by less than 2 percentage points against Trump. Barack Obama performed better in the state, winning it by nearly 8 points in 2012 and more than 10 points in 2008.
Earlier in the year, Minnesota became the focus of the Trump administration’s increased immigration enforcement. Two American citizens were fatally shot by federal immigration officers in January amid protests in Minneapolis, igniting anger over the White House’s hardline immigration stance and border security initiatives.
The state has also been spotlighted nationally due to fraud investigations.
Latest Poll
A new Quantus Insights poll shows Flanagan leading 48.2% to Tafoya’s 44.4%, with 88.6% of participants saying they are “definitely decided” on their vote, while 7.5% remain open to changing their mind.
Women favored Flanagan by 14 points, 54% to 40%, while men supported Tafoya by 8 points, 50% to 42%. An age divide emerged, with Flanagan leading among voters under 45. She garnered support from 62% of those aged 18 to 29 versus Tafoya’s 28%, and 63% of voters aged 30 to 44 compared to Tafoya’s 34%. Tafoya led among older voters, 54% to 38% among those aged 45 to 64, and 47% to 44% among those 65 and older.
Flanagan has a 50% favorable rating and 46% unfavorable. Tafoya is viewed favorably by 42.4% of respondents and unfavorably by 42%.
The poll surveyed 720 likely voters between September 8-10. The margin of error is 4.2 percentage points.
What Other Polls Show
Limited public polling since the primary generally shows Flanagan ahead, with some surveys indicating a race within the margin of error.
An August TIPP/League of American Workers poll with 1,201 likely voters found Flanagan narrowly leading 44% to 42%, with 6% supporting other candidates and 8% undecided. Flanagan held most support among Gen Z, millennial, female, Black, and Hispanic voters, while Tafoya’s base included older voters, men, and white voters. Both candidates captured 37% of the independent vote, with a margin of error of 3%. The League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group led by former Trump adviser Steve Cortes, lacks formal Republican Party affiliation.
An August KSTP/SurveyUSA poll of 661 likely adults showed Flanagan leading 46% to 41%, with 11% undecided. Margin of error was 4.3 percentage points.
A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey on party preferences revealed Democrats leading Republicans on a generic ballot in the Senate race, 49% to 41%. It was sponsored by KARE-TV, the Minnesota Star Tribune, and the University of Minnesota Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communications, surveying 800 likely voters between June 8-10.
Prediction Markets
The prediction markets favor Flanagan significantly. Kalshi estimations give Flanagan a 90.3% winning chance compared to Tafoya’s 9.7%. Polymarket reflects similar outcomes, with Flanagan at 92% and Tafoya at 9%.
Democrats’ Chances to Flip the Senate
Democrats aim to flip four Republican-held seats while maintaining their own to seize control of the Senate, which Republicans hold 53-47. Democratic strategists suggest that voter apprehensions about the economy, Trump’s declining approval ratings, and the war with Iran might open opportunities in key state races. Despite Democratic optimism, Republicans assert they will retain their Senate majority and control of Congress.
Nationally, 35% of voters approve of Trump’s job performance, while 59% disapprove. This puts him in a negative approval of -24, according to Civiqs’ rolling online survey of registered voters. The survey, with around 129,000 responses since January 20, 2025, reflects Trump’s second term.
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin’s averages show Democrats leading in four races for GOP-held Senate seats, putting the party close to gaining the necessary four seats required, with minimal room for error. Its updated averages show Democrats with leads in Alaska, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. Republicans maintain leads in Florida, Iowa, and Kansas.
Georgia and Michigan represent the most competitive races where Democrats currently hold seats. Both states narrowly supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election but backed President Joe Biden in 2020. Democrats target seats in Maine, where Harris led by 7 points, and North Carolina, where Trump led by 3 points, as top flip opportunities.
Prediction markets remain split on post-midterm Senate control. As of Friday, Kalshi gives Republicans a 53% chance to retain the Senate chamber, while Polymarket slightly favors Democrats with a 53% chance to secure a majority.
Minnesota’s in-person early voting begins on October 16.
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