A new political landscape might emerge in Mississippi as Democrat Scott Colom narrows the gap with incumbent Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. A recent Wedgewood Polls survey reveals Hyde-Smith leading with 52 percent over Colom’s 48 percent, a close range given the 4.3-point margin of error.
The poll, conducted from October 12 to 14, involved 511 likely voters, capturing a close race despite Hyde-Smith still being the favorite. Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the race from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” highlighting increased competitiveness.
Analyzing the poll’s crosstabs reveals voter divisions. Colom received strong backing from Black voters, garnering 91 percent support, and led among younger voters, ages 18 to 29, with 56 percent compared to Hyde-Smith’s 44 percent. Conversely, Hyde-Smith secured 78 percent among white voters and dominated with 88 percent support from those who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024. In the poll, Black voters comprised 37 percent of the weighted sample.
The survey, designed and funded independently by Wedgewood Polls, included respondents recruited through an online panel. Participants were screened based on registration status and likelihood of voting, with data weighted by gender, age, race, ethnicity, and education. The margin of error for subgroups is wider.
Growing Democratic interest in the historically Republican state is evident, as The Wall Street Journal noted last month. Democrats see Mississippi as a potential target, prompting increased donor activity.
Nonetheless, the survey’s focus on only Hyde-Smith and Colom excludes independent candidate Ty Pinkins, leaving the complete election dynamics less clear. If Colom succeeds, he would be Mississippi’s first Democratic senator since 1982.
The situation presents Democrats with an unlikely opportunity, yet a single poll within the margin of error does not define a trend. Stay tuned for further developments in this evolving story.
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