Nancy Mace is falling behind other Republican candidates in recent polls for the South Carolina gubernatorial primary. As Election Day nears, Mace’s position remains weak, reflecting divisions among Republicans due to her shifting ideological stance and tense ties with Donald Trump. The primary serves as a critical test for the GOP’s future direction.
Governor Henry McMaster is stepping down due to term limits, prompting several contenders to enter the race. Notable candidates include Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette, endorsed by Trump, and others such as Representative Ralph Norman, businessman Rom Reddy, and Attorney General Alan Wilson. Newsweek sought comments from all campaigns.
South Carolina Governor Race: Final Polls
The election race is tight ahead of the June 9 primary. If no candidate secures more than 50% support, a runoff on June 23 will decide the nominee. Recent polls present varying insights:
- Co/Efficient (June 2-4): 879 likely voters, MOE +/- 3.31%
- The Tyson Group (June 1-3): 500 likely voters, MOE +/- 4.4%
- The Citadel (May 21-31): 600 likely voters, MOE +/- 4.5%
Many candidates share platforms focused on cutting state income tax and improving government efficiency, according to Robert Oldendick, a political science professor. He notes Evette and Wilson gain from statewide recognition.
Mace’s Congressional actions and Trump relationship have hindered her campaign, Oldendick suggests. Initially loyal to Trump, Mace later opposed him on several issues, affecting her appeal.
What Do Prediction Markets Show?
Prediction markets show Evette as the likely nominee. Trump’s endorsement boosted her chances. He praised her consistent support on Truth Social, stating: “She never wavered, never let me down.”
Current market predictions: 77% for Evette on Kalshi, Wilson at 17%, and Mace at 4.3%; Polymarket estimates 73% for Evette, providing a similar perspective.
These platforms aggregate real-money bets into probability estimates, though they may not always predict outcomes accurately.
Nancy Mace and Donald Trump’s Relationship: Timeline
Mace, initially a staunch Trump supporter, was instrumental in Trump’s 2016 campaign. After the 2020 Capitol riot, her criticism of Trump became a significant point of contention. Though she didn’t vote for impeachment, her stance caused friction.
In her 2022 reelection, Trump backed opponent Katie Arrington. Mace still secured her nomination, earning Trump’s congratulations. By 2023, the rift softened, as Mace voiced her willingness to support Trump for the national good.
By early 2024, Mace endorsed Trump, acknowledging political divergences but emphasizing unity against Joe Biden. Despite her support, Trump prioritized Evette due to her enduring loyalty.
Democrats’ Chances in South Carolina
Looking towards the 2026 midterms, rising Democratic hopes face the challenge of South Carolina’s deep Republican roots. Despite Trump’s national disapproval, forecasters deem Republican control in the state likely.
Kalshi and Polymarket assign Republicans a 91% and 92% chance of retaining governorship, respectively. Oldendick remains confident in the GOP’s lead, citing their fundraising dominance.
Historically solid Republican, South Carolina hasn’t backed a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976, highlighting a tough landscape for Democrats in upcoming elections.
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