Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has displayed a map highlighting how he perceives alliances throughout the Middle East. Regional analysts have told Newsweek that this map illustrates Israel’s growing isolation under Netanyahu’s leadership. As Israelis prepare for elections on October 27, Netanyahu shared the map during his first in-person media security briefing since the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023.
This map was not created by Netanyahu. It was initially developed by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, a think tank linked to Germany’s center-left SPD party. Released in May, it offers an analytical view of emerging regional alignments from Libya to India.
I think Netanyahu’s map is far more revealing than he probably intended.
These are the words of Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King’s College London (KCL), speaking to Newsweek. He suggests that Netanyahu aims to position himself as the architect of a new regional security order. However, Krieg argues that the map shows Israel’s isolation from major powers in its neighborhood.
Yoram Meital, a professor emeritus of Middle East Studies at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, adds that Netanyahu’s objective is to project Israel as a powerful regional force with strategic alliances and influence. Nevertheless, Meital views this portrayal as selective and misleading.
What Did Netanyahu’s Map Show?
Some significant Israeli media outlets boycotted the briefing on the previous Sunday in protest of Netanyahu’s limited engagement with the press. However, security officials and top aides attended, as reported by The Times of Israel. During the two-hour session, Netanyahu showcased the map titled geopolitical alliances in the Middle East where countries were shaded in different colors to exhibit regional connections.
The “Israel-UAE Hexagon alliance” is highlighted in blue. Areas considered “friendly” by these countries, such as Greece, Ethiopia, and Somaliland, appear in lighter blue. Iran and its Axis of Resistance allies, including parts of Yemen embroiled in civil war, are marked in purple. Lavender represents nations Iran views as friendly, like Russia and sections of Iraq. The “Sunni Diamond Alliance,” encompassing Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan, is marked in dark green. Friendly countries to this alliance, such as Sudan, Syria, and Jordan, are shown in a lighter shade of green.
Netanyahu defended Israel’s military campaigns against Iran as necessary for containing threats post the October 7 attacks. However, Krieg noted that Netanyahu’s map highlights regional resistance to Israel’s strategy. He pointed out that as Israel seeks military dominance, other states are motivated to counterbalance it.
Netanyahu can redraw the map of the Middle East, but he cannot redraw the strategic interests of the countries that actually live there.
This was another observation from Krieg. He emphasized that Netanyahu has used speculative geopolitical analysis in his national security doctrine. Krieg argued that emerging relationship maps differ from a functioning alliance system.
What Are Netanyahu’s Regional Priorities?
Krieg highlighted that under Netanyahu, Israel is increasingly aligning with the UAE’s “axis of secessionists.” Israel looks to incorporate Abu Dhabi’s network of separatist movements and breakaway authorities into its security framework. This revives Israel’s old periphery doctrine, but the new periphery involves substate actors instead of sovereign states.
Netanyahu aims to reshape the regional order by leveraging the fragmentation of neighboring states, projecting influence without political acceptance from regional capitals. However, this strategy encounters challenges. According to Krieg, Saudi Arabia perceives this approach as threatening regional sovereignty and stability.
A few years back, Netanyahu hailed Saudi normalization as a major diplomatic success.
Now, Saudi Arabia is at the center of a competing alignment, as described during Netanyahu’s security presentation. On Sunday, Netanyahu pledged to topple the Iranian regime, minimized settler violence in the West Bank amid international criticism, and warned that the election could determine if Israel achieves its military objectives.
Meital observed that Netanyahu’s election campaign centers on security, touting military successes like defeating Hamas in Gaza, weakening Hezbollah, and diminishing Iran’s influence. Yet, this overlooks Netanyahu’s accountability for the security failures of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent destruction in Gaza, including significant civilian casualties.
Following Netanyahu’s briefing, Gadi Eisenkot, head of the Yashar party, accused him on X of failing to fulfill the war’s main goals. Eisenkot highlighted the 40,000 armed Hamas militants still in Gaza and Hezbollah’s efforts to rebuild militarily, alongside the deteriorating security situation in the West Bank.
The Israeli opposition challenges Netanyahu’s security narrative. It criticizes the failures surrounding October 7 and the extensive human and economic toll from the ongoing wars. Additionally, it questions Israel’s declining international standing.
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