The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, commencing on June 1, is approaching with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) providing its forecast. NOAA projects a below-average season featuring eight to 14 named storms, with three to six potentially developing into hurricanes. Of these, one to three may become major hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher in strength.
NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs emphasizes the importance of preparedness for coastal residents, regardless of the below-average forecast. He states, “Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one.” Historical data shows Category 5 hurricanes making landfall during seasons below average in storm activity.
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham highlights advancements in technology enhancing storm preparedness. Graham assures that NOAA, which oversees the Weather Service responsible for hurricane forecasts, has never been more prepared for the hurricane season.
NOAA indicates there’s a 55% chance of below-normal hurricane activity, a 35% chance of near-normal activity, and a 10% chance of above-normal activity. A storm is named when sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph and is classified as a hurricane when winds hit 74 mph. Wind speeds of 111 mph or higher categorize hurricanes as “major” on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season typically occurs between August and October, a period known for the most intense storm activity. NOAA plans to update its outlook as necessary throughout the summer.
Accuracy of NOAA’s 2025 Hurricane Forecast
NOAA’s predictions for the 2025 hurricane season, while generally accurate, required adjustments. Initially estimating 13 to 19 named storms, and six to 10 hurricanes, their forecast shifted in August to anticipate 13 to 18 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. Ultimately, the season recorded 13 named storms, including five hurricanes, with four classified as major.
Compared to an average season with 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, 2025 was quieter.
Impact of El Niño on The 2026 Hurricane Season
The upcoming season’s activity may be affected by El Niño, a climate pattern linked to fewer Atlantic storms. However, meteorologist Nikki Nolan notes that its arrival does not negate the possibility of Atlantic hurricanes, but statistically may reduce their frequency.
On the West Coast, El Niño can increase the occurrence and formation of tropical storms and hurricanes, enhanced by warmer Pacific waters. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts an 82% likelihood of El Niño’s presence by July, monitoring its potential strength.
Colorado State University’s forecast aligns with NOAA’s, predicting slightly less than usual activity with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. Like NOAA, CSU will provide updates over the following months.
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Storm Names
The World Meteorological Organization annually assembles a list of names for storms in the forthcoming Atlantic hurricane season. The list comprises 21 names, each beginning with a different alphabet letter. An additional list is utilized if more than 21 storms emerge in a single year.
Here is the primary list for 2026:
- Arthur
- Bertha
- Cristobal
- Dolly
- Edouard
- Fay
- Gonzalo
- Hanna
- Isaias
- Josephine
- Kyle
- Leah
- Marco
- Nana
- Omar
- Paulette
- Rene
- Sally
- Teddy
- Vicky
- Wilfred
Nikki Nolan contributed to this report.
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