Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman from Alaska, is leading the race against incumbent Dan Sullivan for the state’s Senate seat with a 7-point advantage. This conclusion comes from a New York Times/Siena University poll conducted from September 24 to October 1 among 504 likely voters. The results show Peltola with 50% of the vote compared to Sullivan’s 43%, marking a significant lead for the Democrat despite recent controversy.
The poll’s margin of error stands at 5.1 percentage points. Peltola expressed optimism about the results, highlighting how her campaign has gained momentum. On social media platform X, she noted, “In June, we were down by 2 points. This month, in the very same poll, we’re up by 7. Alaska, we can win this.” If Peltola maintains her lead, she would be the first Democratic senator from Alaska since Mark Begich lost his seat to Sullivan in 2014.
Peltola vs. Sullivan: What Latest Polls Say
Earlier polls in late September depicted a close contest between Peltola and Sullivan. A Quantus Insight poll from September 28-30 among 758 likely voters showed Sullivan with 46.1% and Peltola with 45.5%. The difference of 0.6 points fell within the eight-point margin of error. The survey concluded that neither candidate had a definitive lead just weeks before the election.
A Republican pollster, the Trafalgar Group, conducted a survey between September 22-24 among 1,079 likely voters, placing Sullivan ahead by 1 point. A co/efficient poll between September 14-17 among 799 likely voters gave Sullivan a +2 margin. Conversely, an Alaska Survey Research poll between September 10-12 among 1,352 likely voters gave Peltola a +5 margin, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Alaska Voters Appear Unmoved by NYT Exposé
The recent poll indicating Peltola’s largest lead was taken after a New York Times report detailing accusations from former and current staffers about her alleged abusive behavior. The report published on September 23 claimed the use of offensive slurs and aggressive behavior by Peltola, allegations that her campaign has denied.
Peltola’s campaign stated that during the alleged incidents, she was coping with personal tragedies, including the deaths of her mother and husband.
The campaign clarified that during these challenging times, Peltola was managing her responsibilities as a parent, fulfilling her role in the U.S. House, and running for re-election, all amidst her grief.
Peltola and Sullivan’s Current Standing
Sullivan’s campaign has been utilizing the New York Times exposé to critique Peltola, with supportive PACs creating campaign ads against her. Yet, the most recent poll results suggest Alaska voters remain unaffected by these allegations. Even after acknowledging the reported behavior, many voters did not shift their support.
Meanwhile, Peltola’s campaign has targeted Sullivan’s financial dealings, highlighting his violation of the STOCK Act, which mandates federal lawmakers to disclose stock trades. Reports by Alaska Current indicate he is the most active stock trader in the state’s delegation, significantly increasing his wealth during his Senate tenure.
Peltola champions a ban on congressional stock trading, and her disclosures show no substantial stock holdings.
Importance of the Alaska Senate Race in the 2026 Midterms
The Alaska Senate race has become crucial for Democrats seeking Senate control. Republicans currently hold a 53 to 47 majority, with Democrats aiming to gain four seats to shift the balance of power.
Alaska has historically leaned Republican, as evidenced by its consistent support in presidential elections. Yet, Democratic hopes are rising with Peltola’s progress in polls. She runs on a centrist agenda, appealing to independents and moderate Republicans who may shy away from candidates backed by former President Donald Trump.
The same New York Times/Siena University poll reveals waning support for Trump, with 48% of likely Alaska voters strongly disapproving of his presidency. This change could influence the race’s dynamics as Democrats look to capitalize on growing disapproval.
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