The National Hurricane Center (NHC) recently updated its forecast, indicating that a disturbance in the Atlantic, east of the United States, could become a tropical storm within seven days. This forecast emerges amidst an unusually quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, which has yet to produce a hurricane this year.
The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and concludes on November 30. Predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in May suggested a below-average season, expecting eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes. To date, five tropical storms have formed, with Tropical Storm Edouard appearing last on August 31.
Impact of El Niño on the Season
The slow activity this season is largely attributed to El Niño. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, leading to increased sea temperatures and reduced trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Forecasts suggest El Niño will keep strengthening through the end of the year, with over a 90 percent likelihood of becoming ‘very strong’ in fall and winter. While its effects are more pronounced in the U.S. during colder months, El Niño affects both Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.
In the Atlantic, most storm activities usually occur from mid-August to October. However, El Niño reduces activities by increasing wind shear, which can dismantle storm systems early. Conversely, El Niño in the Pacific may lead to more storms due to warmer seas and less wind shear.
Though El Niño has contributed to the tranquil Atlantic season, NHC meteorologists are watching a new disturbance near Bermuda with potential to form into a tropical storm soon. Newsweek contacted the NHC for comments on Monday.
Potential Development of Tropical Storm Fay
The next Atlantic tropical storm will be named Fay. Current NHC forecasts reveal that the disturbance being tracked has a 40 percent probability of turning into a tropical storm in the next seven days. As of Monday afternoon, the disturbance was 1,000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The forecast map indicated possible westward movement toward the U.S. East Coast.
The NHC stated, “Environmental conditions over the system are forecast to become more conducive for development by midweek. A tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves slowly west-northwest over the subtropical Atlantic.”
AccuWeather meteorologists also foresaw medium development chances. Their report suggests a storm might develop between September 17 and 21. “This swirl is associated with a storm in the middle layer of the atmosphere,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno noted. “Sometimes storms like this spin down to the surface, and if conditions allow, they can evolve into a tropical or subtropical storm.”
Currently, widespread wind shear in the Atlantic basin is less near Bermuda, allowing the disturbance a chance to form into a storm.
Comparison with Previous Years
Last year’s Atlantic hurricane season was below normal too, with 13 named storms, one hurricane, and four major hurricanes. By this time last year, six named storms had formed, including Erin, which became a major hurricane. Normally, a season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Storms So Far This Year
- Tropical Storm Arthur: June 17
- Tropical Storm Bertha: July 19
- Tropical Storm Cristobal: August 12
- Tropical Storm Dolly: August 27
- Tropical Storm Edouard: August 31
Three of these storms originated in the Gulf of America, impacting the Gulf states with rain and wind.
What Lies Ahead
As of Monday afternoon, no tropical storm watches or warnings have been issued. The NHC will continue to monitor the disturbance and provide updates as it progresses. Despite forecasts of a below-average season, officials warn that just one storm can cause significant devastation. Residents in hurricane-prone regions should keep up with local forecasts and prepare for any potential storms.
For additional information or comments, editors Samantha Beech and Geoffrey Rowland at Newsweek contributed to this coverage.
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