Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General, has been focusing on young voters in his Senate campaign. Recent polling indicates a shift away from Paxton among this demographic. A survey by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University reveals Democratic state Representative James Talarico leads Paxton 76% to 18% among likely voters under 35. This marks a significant increase from July where Talarico led 59% to 29% in the same group.
The data signify Talarico’s support grew by 17 points among young voters over seven weeks, while Paxton’s fell by 11, increasing Paxton’s deficit from 30 points to 58. The broader race to replace Senator John Cornyn, led by Paxton who won the Republican nomination, is closely contested. Among likely voters overall, Talarico garners 47% support, Paxton 46%, Libertarian Ted Brown 3%, and 4% are undecided, per the latest survey of 1,800 likely voters with a margin of error of 2.31 percentage points.
A win for Talarico would break a decades-long trend by electing a Democrat in a Texas statewide election. Despite efforts, Paxton’s student-focused initiatives appear ineffective. For example, his campaign launched Students for Paxton chapters at colleges as recruitment hubs, yet recent figures suggest young voter support dropped, with most gains going to Talarico.
Talarico’s popularity among young voters correlates with his presence on podcasts and online shows targeting young men. Political strategist Mike Madrid notes these platforms contribute significantly to Talarico’s growing national profile.
Other races show similar young voter trends. Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Governor Greg Abbott among voters under 35 at 71% to 21%. Likewise, Democratic state Representative Vikki Goodwin leads Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick 65% to 18% in the same demographic. Voter segment sizes fluctuate, though; younger voters represented 14% of September’s sample, down from 18% in July.
Paxton maintains connections with young conservative voices online. In 2023, during Paxton’s impeachment, Influenceable LLC reportedly recruited Gen Z influencers to support him, offering $50 to share specific posts from his account on X.
Talarico’s young voter rise corresponds with shifts in his policy stances. Previously opposing bills affecting transgender student athletes, Talarico recently expressed concerns on safety and fairness in such sports. His energy platform also evolved from pure climate change focus to an inclusive approach supporting the oil and gas industry.
Republicans criticize these changes as inconsistency, arguing Talarico will revert to progressive positions if elected. Paxton’s recent comments to the Republican National Committee highlight these accusations, though Talarico defends his consistency.
Madrid notes Talarico’s more centrist approach post-primary against Jasmine Crockett, appealing not only to Democrats but also moderate Republicans, 27% of whom plan to vote for Talarico.
The Barbara Jordan Center survey highlights Talarico’s lead in many polls. Trafalgar Group shows Talarico up 46% to 45%, Emerson College finds him leading 47% to 46%, and ReconMR shows a wider gap of 49% to 43%. Several other polls consistently place Talarico ahead.
Despite the polling, Republican strategist Alex Patton urges caution, emphasizing that voter enthusiasm seems specific to Talarico rather than a broader Democratic shift in Texas. Paxton retains his lead among older voters and white demographics, while Talarico leads among Latino and Black voters.
The electoral landscape in Texas reflects traditional turnout patterns where older voters dominate. For instance, in 2022, Texans under 49 constituted only 41% of overall turnout.
The Cook Political Report labels Texas among several toss-ups for the 35 Senate seats. The election sees substantial financial engagement, with Republican groups reserving $47.2 million for advertising, compared to Democrats’ $6.4 million. Talarico has $21.5 million in the campaign fund compared to Paxton’s $1.8 million, as per FEC records.
While Democratic chances in Texas remain challenging, evolving conditions could favor their cause. The election approaches on November 3.
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