President Donald Trump’s approval ratings in 2023 shifted notably among two major religious communities: born-again Protestants and Roman Catholics. According to a Newsweek analysis based on Marquette Law School polls, Trump’s approval among born-again Protestants increased from 56% in January to 61% in July. In contrast, his approval rating declined among Catholics, dropping from 54% to 45% over the same period. This created a significant 32-point gap, with born-again Protestants showing a net approval of +22 compared to a -10 among Catholics.
Tensions with the Pope
The downturn in Trump’s approval among Catholics coincided with public disagreements between Trump and Pope Leo XIV over issues like the war with Iran and U.S. immigration policies. Despite efforts to play down their conflict, Pope Leo repeatedly advocated for peace and compassion for migrants, clashing with Trump’s stances. The polling doesn’t draw a direct line from these disputes to the decline in Trump’s ratings, but it arises amid growing differences between the Catholic community and Trump’s core base of born-again Protestants.
“There has never been a greater president for Christian Americans than President Trump,” said White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers. “He has defended religious rights and ended federal overreach against people of faith.” She criticized Democrats for undermining faith-based rights and compared this negatively to Trump’s track record.
Polling Insights
The divergence in support was notable. Trump’s approval with born-again Protestants rose steadily, reaching 61% by July. In contrast, Catholic approval saw a sharp decline, falling from 54% in January to 45% by May and June, with a slight recovery to 45% in July. Among mainline Protestants, his approval remained steady at 47% from January to July.
Nationally, Trump’s approval dipped from 42% in January to 38% in May and June, later increasing slightly to 40% in July. The polls surveyed 1,002 to 1,514 adults with margins of error between 2.7 and 3.5 percentage points, using fresh samples each time.
Feud With the Pope
Trump’s friction with Pope Leo XIV marked a memorable development. Trump faced criticism from Leo and other church leaders over his approach to immigration and the military conflict with Iran. While Leo emphasized peace, Trump emphasized Iran’s actions and issued strong warnings. The president also shared an AI-generated image likening himself to a religious figure, which he later distanced himself from.
Pope Leo enjoys broad popularity with American Catholics regardless of political affiliation. A May survey by the Public Religion Research Institute reported that 56% of Americans viewed Leo favorably, compared to 34% who favored Trump. Leo held higher favorability across most religious groups, except among white evangelical Protestants.
The Significance of Catholic Voters
Catholic voters play a crucial role in American politics. In the 2024 presidential election, they represented 20% of voters and made up 22% of Trump’s coalition, based on Pew Research Center data. Trump captured 55% of the Catholic vote in 2024, after a narrow win over Joe Biden in the previous election. However, Catholics tend to be politically diverse. While Trump secured 81% of white evangelical votes, only about 55% of Catholics backed him, with racial differences affecting support.
The U.S. Catholic electorate’s size and diversity mean shifts in opinion can impact tightly contested elections, especially when control of Congress is at stake. The Republican Party is defending its House majority against Democrats targeting numerous GOP-held seats. Though presidential approval does not directly equate to congressional support, Trump’s policies, including conservative achievements such as abortion restrictions and religious protections, continue to resonate with many Christian voters.
Over his term, Trump maintained strong backing among both Protestant and Catholic followers, despite opposition from some within the church on immigration and foreign policy matters. Reports show 62% of Protestants and 55% of Catholics voted for him in 2024, comprising 79% of his overall voter base, according to Pew data.
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