Winter is approaching, and various forecasts provide insights into what we may expect. Although it’s only the end of September, weather predictions for the 2026-2027 winter season are already available.
Almanac Predictions
The Old Farmer’s Almanac and Farmers’ Almanac have released their forecasts. The Farmers’ Almanac anticipates ‘snow, sleet, and surprises’ for the upcoming winter. The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a mild winter with some cold, snowy spots.
The Farmers’ Almanac reports varying levels of winter precipitation across the U.S. In the Upper Plains and Midwest, snow is likely. The Gulf and southern East Coast regions may experience wet conditions, with coastal storms in New England. The Old Farmer’s Almanac suggests most parts of the U.S. will have mild weather. However, the Ohio Valley and southern New England might face a cold winter. Hawaii could be cooler, while the Plains are expected to remain dry.
Accuracy of Almanac Forecasts
Both almanacs claim 80% accuracy in their long-term forecasts. Yet, research indicates the Farmers’ Almanac’s predictions are accurate about half the time. Meteorologist Rich Segal noted that predicting weather far in advance can be unreliable.
National Weather Service Outlook
The National Weather Service provides long-range forecasts, although subject to change and not predicting specific events like major storms. According to Jon Gottschalck from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, specific forecasts aren’t possible.
The Climate Prediction Center suggests warmer-than-normal temperatures across many states, influenced by a strong El Niño. Through early 2027, above-average precipitation is expected in the South. From October to December, forecasts indicate warmer conditions and increased precipitation through large portions of the U.S.
El Niño’s Impact on Weather
El Niño could be the strongest since 1950, influencing weather patterns through spring 2027. Typically, northern states will experience drier and warmer conditions, while southern states could be cooler and wetter.
Brian James, Nexstar meteorologist, explained that although northern states will experience some snow, the pattern suggests less overall snowfall compared to normal.
Trusting the Predictions
Sandi Duncan of the Farmers’ Almanac mentioned that while not perfectly accurate, the predictions have proven useful historically. Methods are continually refined, but nature ultimately dictates weather outcomes.
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