The 2028 Democratic presidential primary race is beginning to take shape, with Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Jon Ossoff gaining momentum against California Governor Gavin Newsom in Polymarket’s prediction market. As potential candidates start announcing their campaigns, prediction markets provide a snapshot of the current public sentiment towards these political figures.
Changes in Prediction Market Odds
Polymarket’s recent data suggests increased chances for Ocasio-Cortez and Ossoff, with Ocasio-Cortez moving up to a 15 percent chance of winning the nomination from a previous 9 percent. Ossoff’s odds have similarly improved to 14 percent from less than 6 percent. Meanwhile, Newsom’s chances dropped from 25 percent in June to 18 percent.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris remains at about an 8 percent chance. In parallel, Kalshi’s market shows similar trends, with Ocasio-Cortez’s chances climbing from 10 percent to 16 percent, and Ossoff’s from 9 percent to 14 percent. Newsom continues to lead with a consistent probability of 21 to 22 percent.
Poll Results Impact
Despite varied prediction market results, several polls indicate Kamala Harris as a favorite. A FocalData poll displays Harris having a lead with a 33 percent support compared to Newsom’s 15 percent, Ocasio-Cortez’s 9 percent, and Buttigieg’s 8 percent. Other candidates such as Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly have garnered minimal support.
McLaughlin’s polling depicts Harris with 26 percent support, followed by Newsom at 16 percent, and Ocasio-Cortez at 9 percent. Buttigieg maintains 8 percent support, while other figures like Cory Booker and Wes Moore possess lower backing.
A Harvard/Harris poll showed Harris with predominant support from 50 percent of Democrats. Newsom followed with 22 percent, while Ocasio-Cortez, Shapiro, and Pritzker secured single-digit support levels.
Prospective Candidates’ Remarks
Kamala Harris has not dismissed the idea of running, mentioning the possibility during the National Action Network convention. She emphasized her vice-presidential experiences as foundational for a potential campaign.
Newsom indicated the possibility of running but hasn’t committed to a decision, while Ocasio-Cortez focuses on broader societal changes rather than direct political ambitions. Ossoff and Whitmer have explicitly stated they do not plan to run, maintaining focus on their current political responsibilities.
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