President Donald Trump’s popularity with independent voters has significantly decreased, according to several national polls. Recent data reflects record-low approval ratings and substantial declines since the start of his second term. With independents often being pivotal in midterm elections, a continued decline could change the political dynamics as the midterms approach in 2026. The electoral outcomes for Republicans, particularly in competitive House and Senate races, could shift if independents continue to distance themselves from Trump.
Key Poll Findings
A tracking poll by Civiqs shows Trump’s approval at 30% and disapproval at 63% among independents, a net negative of 33%. This is a decrease from a net negative of 5% at the beginning of his term, marking a 38-point negative swing.
An Economist/YouGov poll conducted from May 29 to June 1 reports Trump’s net approval among independents at -50%, an all-time low for the pollster. This represents a 46-point drop from early 2025 levels.
Data from PRRI indicates independent favorability at 25% in May, down from 35% in early 2025.
An AP-NORC analysis reveals independent support has plummeted to about one-quarter, down from nearly four in ten during the 2024 election period. Multiple national polls and datasets published through June 2026 document a steep decline in Trump’s approval and favorability among independent voters during his second term.
Detailed Poll Analysis
A more detailed examination of polling trends shows a steady move away from Trump among independents. Net approval ratings are calculated by subtracting disapproval percentages from approval percentages.
Civiqs Tracking
The longest-running dataset from Civiqs captures responses from over 110,000 people between Trump’s second inauguration on January 20, 2025, and mid-June 2026. Initially, independents narrowly disapproved of Trump with 44% approval and 49% disapproval, resulting in a net -5%. By June 2026, 30% approved and 63% disapproved, leading to a net -33%. This reflects a 38-point swing away, indicating a significant shift. Civiqs uses rolling sampling and statistical smoothing, showing a sustained trend rather than a one-time change. At the state level, Civiqs data also reveals Trump is failing across much of the country, not just in reliably Democratic states.
Economist/YouGov Poll
The Economist/YouGov series presents a weekly poll indicating even sharper declines. On May 29 to June 1, the poll recorded a net approval of -50% for Trump among independents, with a margin of error of ±3.6%. In contrast, an earlier poll from January 26-28, 2025, showed a net approval of -4% with a margin of error of ±3.3%. This represents a decline of 46 points over 16 months. YouGov’s Allen Houston noted this as a historic low for Trump among independents, comparing it to Democrats’ views at the start of Trump’s first term, when he had a net -54% approval.
AP-NORC Structural Analysis
The AP-NORC analysis, published in June, combines data from 21 surveys conducted from July 2024 to April 2026, with a sample of 4,836 independents. It reveals a broad decline in support, with support around the 2024 election falling from about four in ten to one-quarter by spring 2026. The decrease is significant, particularly among independents without a college degree—once a pro-Trump group—where support fell from about half to one-quarter.
PRRI Favorability Decline
The Public Religion Research Institute’s data, gathered in May, included 5,469 adults and noted a margin of error of ±1.53%. It showed that 25% of independents viewed Trump favorably, down from 35% in March 2025, reflecting a 10-point drop. While favorability is not the same as job approval, the trend echoes other data: Independent opinion of Trump has become more negative.
Polling Consensus
Despite various methodologies, polls consistently report Trump’s declining approval among independents. Changes range from 10 to 40 points, depending on the metric and timeframe. Trump’s current standing with independents often falls 30 to 40 points below water. The consistency across polling methods suggests a real shift in opinion.
White House Response
When asked about the polls, the White House highlighted Trump’s 2024 election victory as the “ultimate poll.” Spokesperson Davis Ingle stated nearly 80 million Americans elected Trump for his agenda. Ingle argued that Trump’s administration is making significant progress in areas like job creation and housing affordability.
Looking Ahead
The future of Trump’s standing with independents may rely on political and economic developments. Polling links public perceptions with issues like inflation and foreign policy, areas closely following presidential approval. Currently, independents’ skepticism poses challenges for upcoming midterm races.
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