AccuWeather has updated its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The company now expects 8 to 14 named storms, reducing its previous estimate of 11 to 16 storms in March. This change is due to the early arrival of El Niño and the possibility of its significant strengthening.
Lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva explained that El Niño’s presence is the main reason for predicting a quieter season. He recalled that a strong El Niño in 2015 resulted in 11 named storms.
Despite the revision in the number of named storms, AccuWeather maintains other key parts of its forecast. The company still expects 4 to 7 hurricanes, including 2 to 4 major ones, with 3 to 5 storms likely impacting the U.S. directly. The areas most at risk include the northern and eastern Gulf Coast, southeastern U.S. coastline, and parts of the Caribbean.
DaSilva noted that storms developing close to the coast might give less warning time compared to those forming off Africa. AccuWeather emphasizes that the lower storm forecast results from El Niño’s influence and the heightened chance of a Super El Niño forming later in the year.
The firm estimates a 70% probability of a Super El Niño emerging and lasting into early 2027. El Niño typically reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic by increasing wind shear. This wind shear disrupts tropical systems, making it tougher for them to organize into storms and hurricanes.
AccuWeather also predicts that summer and fall weather patterns should lower the risk of major tropical impacts on the central and lower Texas coast.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural Pacific climate pattern. It involves shifts in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific’s ocean temperatures, affecting weather patterns. NOAA explains that El Niño occurs every two to seven years, lasting between nine to twelve months. It contrasts with La Niña, the cool ENSO phase, with neutral conditions being in-between.
For El Niño to develop, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific must warm 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal. The atmosphere must also respond, including weaker trade winds and altered rainfall patterns, according to NOAA.
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Storm Names
Running through November, the Atlantic hurricane season has already seen its first named storm, Tropical Storm Arthur, in June. Here are the storm names for the season:
- Arthur
- Bertha
- Cristobal
- Dolly
- Edouard
- Fay
- Gonzalo
- Hanna
- Isaias
- Josephine
- Kyle
- Leah
- Marco
- Nana
- Omar
- Paulette
- Rene
- Sally
- Teddy
- Vicky
- Wilfred
Contact Newsweek editors: Matthew Robinson and Dave Siminoff.
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