Texas Governor Greg Abbott is facing off against Democrat Gina Hinojosa in a highly competitive gubernatorial race. A recent poll reveals Abbott holds a slim lead, though it is within the margin of error. The election, to be held in about three months, will decide if Texas elects a Democratic governor for the first time since Ann Richards in 1990 or if Abbott secures another term, positioning him as the longest-serving governor in Texas history.
Democrats view the race as an opportunity, especially with declining support for President Donald Trump. They aim to capitalize on this to gain traction in traditionally Republican states like Texas. Despite this, Republicans remain confident, pointing to their consistent success in statewide elections.
Forecasting agencies continue to see Abbott as a strong candidate. The Cook Political Report categorizes the race as “solid Republican.” Despite this, polling suggests a narrower race compared to Abbott’s previous 11-point win against Beto O’Rourke in 2022.
“While Texas is experiencing demographic and political shifts, Abbott maintains advantages in fundraising and name recognition,” states Alex Patton of Ozean Media. “A Democratic win isn’t impossible but remains challenging.”
Gina Hinojosa’s ascendancy in the polls reflects a shift from a 10-point to a 3-point race gap, according to Democratic strategist Doug Gordon. The Texas race is part of 36 gubernatorial contests happening nationwide in 2026, including key races in Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Georgia.
What the New Poll Shows
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll surveyed 1,048 likely voters, showing Abbott leading Hinojosa 45% to 42%, with 10% undecided. Hinojosa leads among independents and moderates by 5 and 18 points, respectively, and has substantial support among Black and Latino voters.
Conducted between July 15 and July 17, the poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Abbott, a staunch conservative and Trump ally, has been governor since 2014 and seeks reelection. Hinojosa, serving in the Texas House since 2017, secured the Democratic nomination in March.
“Abbott polling under 50% isn’t favorable for his campaign,” Gordon mentions. “If Hinojosa can sway independents and mobilize Latino voters, she has a good chance.”
Lists of challenges Hinojosa faces are laid out, according to Patton. She needs a substantial share of undecided voters, support from independents and moderate Republicans, and heightened Democratic turnout to compete effectively.
Additional Poll Insights
A New York Times/Siena College poll, surveying 656 likely voters, gave Abbott 51% support versus Hinojosa’s 44%. Polling errors averaged +/- 4.5 percentage points. Another poll by the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project found Abbott with a 7-point lead.
A survey by Reconnaissance Market Research and Texas A&M University suggests a tight race but favors Abbott with 49% compared to 44% for Hinojosa. This poll, conducted from June 1 to June 4, includes a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
Abbott’s Fundraising Advantage
Abbott has significant campaign funding, with $106 million in reserve. His campaign expenses exceed $54.5 million this cycle, with about $67.2 million in cash remaining. In contrast, Hinojosa’s spending and cash reserves are far lower.
Texas Senate Race
Texas also sees a competitive Senate contest. Ken Paxton, the Republican endorsed by Trump, and Democrat James Talarico lead in fluctuating polls. Texas hasn’t elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1988.
Surveys suggest a tight match, with some showing Paxton leading Talarico. However, Talarico shows strength among independents and moderates. The Senate race stands as another measure of Democratic potential in Republican-leaning Texas.
Texan voters will soon determine outcomes for both the gubernatorial and Senate races, providing insight into the state’s political landscape.
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