The Texas Senate race reveals notable concerns for Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, competing against Democratic state Representative James Talarico. This contest offers Democrats a chance to gain a Senate seat in the 2026 midterm elections despite Texas’s Republican leanings. Though Texas supported President Trump by 14 points in 2024, recent polls indicate Talarico holds a slight edge over Paxton.
Challenging Path for Democrats
Flipping Texas poses difficulties for Democrats, but factors such as Trump’s falling national approval ratings, economic dissatisfaction, and Paxton’s unpopularity may provide an opening. Paxton defeated incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn in the primary; Cornyn was seen as less conservative by some but favored by others for appealing to independent voters.
Poll Highlights
The University of Texas and Texas Politics Project poll emphasizes the race’s competitive nature. It surveyed 1,200 registered voters from August 5 to 13, 2026, with a margin of error of ±2.83 percentage points. Four key warnings for Paxton emerged: reduced support since June, low GOP voter motivation, worse favorability than Talarico, and Trump’s decreasing approval in Texas.
Ken Paxton’s Declining Support
Paxton’s support has diminished since the previous poll in June 2026. The recent poll shows Democrat Talarico leads by 3 points. Paxton garnered 39 percent support, while Talarico had 42 percent. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received 3 percent, and 1 percent chose “someone else.” Most notably, 14 percent of voters remain undecided.
Paxton’s Republican support fell from 84 percent to 79 percent. Talarico received backing from 91 percent of Democrats and 37 percent of independents, groups critical in tight races.
Republican Enthusiasm Gap
Voter enthusiasm shows a significant gap. Turnout is crucial, and candidates need to rally their bases. 50 percent of Democrats are “extremely” motivated to vote compared to 39 percent of Republicans. This contrasts with previous enthusiasm levels in August 2022.
Paxton’s Favorability Challenges
Paxton faces favorability issues. Talarico had a +10 favorability rating, while Paxton was at -13. Paxton’s favorability was +40 among Republicans, but Talarico’s was +77 among Democrats. Among independents, Paxton struggled with a -29 favorability.
Paxton’s scandals include a 2023 impeachment over bribery and misconduct allegations, leading to Senate acquittal. Recent scrutiny includes a plea deal regarding abuse accusations.
Trump’s Declining Approval
Trump’s approval ratings are crucial. Despite supporting Paxton, Trump’s approval is now underwater in Texas by 51 percent disapproving and 43 percent approving.
Competitive Race in Other Polls
Other polls show a close Senate race. An Emerson College poll had Paxton leading Talarico by one point, while Texas Southern University showed Talarico ahead by two. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up.
Influence of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets indicate a tight race. Kalshi and Polymarket show near-even chances for both candidates, reflecting fluctuating trader sentiment.
Democrat Strategy in Texas
Democrats aim to capitalize on shifting suburban demographics. The Republican margin in presidential elections has narrowed, reflecting a potential shift in future contests.
Republican stronghold in Texas continues, but Democrats hope to leverage close races to gain ground.
Senate Majority Challenges
Democrats face challenges to win Senate control, needing to flip four seats with competitive opportunities in diverse states. Texas remains a focal point in these efforts.
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