A Marquette Law poll released recently indicates that the Wisconsin governor race between Republican Representative Tom Tiffany and Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley is a statistical tie. Tiffany has broken with former President Donald Trump on several issues, including beef imports and data centers.
The poll shows Crowley holding 49 percent of the vote among likely voters, while Tiffany has 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided. Among registered voters, Crowley has 46 percent compared to Tiffany’s 45 percent, and 9 percent are undecided. The margin of error is 4.8 percent for likely voters and 4.3 percent for registered voters.
Midterm elections often test the political environment for the party in power, and historically, the president’s party loses seats. Republicans currently have narrow control of both the House and Senate. The governor’s seat in this swing state is held by retiring Democratic Governor Tony Evers, with both parties eager for control.
Crowley’s campaign offered a statement regarding the poll, highlighting significant spending by Trump-aligned billionaires backing Tiffany. Garren Randolph, Crowley’s campaign manager, emphasized the need for continued effort until the election, citing external financial influences.
In response, Tiffany criticized Crowley’s tenure as Milwaukee County Executive, highlighting tax increases and other positions he opposes. Tiffany emphasized his plans to return a budget surplus and cut taxes significantly for working families.
Compared to a previous poll, the latest data shows Tiffany gaining among Republicans by four points, while Crowley’s democratic support declined. Independent voters’ support for Crowley also saw a drop. Crowley’s favorability rating is 31 percent, with 44 percent unfavorable. Tiffany stands at 39 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable.
Trump’s approval ratings have declined, with disapproval at 60 percent. Democrats hope to leverage this in upcoming elections. Concerns about affordability and the economy are diminishing the president’s approval on national issues.
The Marquette Law poll surveyed 843 registered voters and 692 likely voters in Wisconsin between September 16 and 23, 2026.
Tiffany’s Disagreements with Trump
Tiffany has recently diverged from Trump on various matters. Trump renamed Lake Ontario to ‘Lake America,’ causing friction with Canada amid tense trade negotiations. Tiffany opposed this, voicing his objections to renaming historically significant lakes.
On the subject of data centers, Tiffany has expressed concerns over subsidies that benefit large companies at taxpayers’ expense, contrasting with Trump’s advocacy.
Similarly, Tiffany disagreed with Trump’s plan to waive tariffs on imported beef, siding with local farmers wary of foreign competition.
Additional Poll Insights
A Platform Communications poll shows Crowley leading by four points. This survey included 500 likely voters with a 4.4 percent margin of error. Another poll from RMG Research showed Crowley with 46 percent to Tiffany’s 43 percent. Conducted with 800 registered voters, this poll’s margin of error is 3.5 percent. Currently, The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up.
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