With the midterm elections approaching in November, President Donald Trump faces a challenging approval scenario across 39 states, including every significant battleground state. The data comes from Civiqs’ online tracker, compiling 133,869 responses from registered voters between January 20, 2025, and October 2, 2026.
Current Approval Figures
Nationally, Trump’s job performance approval stands at 34%, with a disapproval rate of 60%, resulting in a net approval of -26.
In key battlegrounds, negative sentiment prevails, with states like Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania recording net ratings of -25, -24, and -22 respectively. Kentucky has shown the most significant decline, plummeting from +23 to -10. Conversely, Wyoming remains his strongest supporter with a net approval of +18.
Demographic Insights
Younger Voters: Those aged 18-34 show overwhelming disapproval, with only 20% approval versus 73% disapproval. For ages 35-49, 26% approve while 66% disapprove.
Older Voters: Among voters aged 50 to 64, approval stands at 44% to 51% disapproval. For those 65 and older, 44% approve and 52% disapprove.
Partisan Lines: Independents disapprove by 65% to 27%, while Republicans support Trump, with 78% approval compared to 12% disapproval. Female voters disapprove by 65% to 29%, while male voters show 54% disapproval against 39% approval.
Educational Factors
Approval varies with education. Postgraduates register a 24% approval rate, college graduates at 32%, and non-college graduates at 37%. Disapproval exceeds approval within each educational group.
Ethnic Breakdown
Among black voters, 90% disapprove against 7% approval. Hispanic voters disapprove by 70% against 26% approval. White voters show 52% disapproval versus 41% approval.
Battleground State Challenges
Battleground states reveal difficulties for Trump’s approval:
- Arizona: -18
- Florida: -16
- Georgia: -25
- Michigan: -24
- Nevada: -24
- North Carolina: -15
- Ohio: -17
- Pennsylvania: -22
- Wisconsin: -18
These states showed better ratings at the start of Trump’s term, highlighting a notable decline.
Decline in Approval Ratings
Since January 20, 2025, every state has reported lower approval ratings. The largest declines include:
- Kentucky: +23 to -10
- Wyoming: +47 to +18
- Oklahoma: +31 to +4
- Tennessee: +25 to -2
- Texas: +6 to -21
- Idaho: +34 to +8
- Alaska: +9 to -6
- Ohio: +8 to -17
- Florida: +9 to -16
- Montana: +25 to 0
- Nevada: 0 to -24
These shifts are more pronounced in historically Republican states rather than Democratic strongholds.
Stable Opposition in Democratic Strongholds
Trump’s weakest ratings persist in Democratic territories. Hawaii shows the lowest approval with -58, followed by Maryland at -52 and Vermont at -51. California and Massachusetts record -47, and Connecticut at -46.
Washington marks -42, with New York at -39, and Oregon and Rhode Island at -38. The changes in these states are less dramatic as they began with low approval.
White House Position
The White House diminishes the focus on polling, citing Trump’s 2024 victory as a stronger testament to public support. Spokesperson Davis Ingle emphasizes the nearly 80 million votes for Trump as a sign of the administration’s mandate. Ingle states that Trump is dedicated to job creation, inflation reduction, and housing affordability, noting ‘historic progress’ as his agenda unfolds.
Newsweek reached out to the White House for additional comments on these trends.
Newsweek’s team, in collaboration with Martyn, our AI assistant, compiled this report. Learn more about Martyn here.
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