As the most expensive midterm elections approach their end, the financial stakes are extraordinarily high. With over $11 billion invested in campaigns across the country, Republicans are working hard to retain their House and Senate majorities, even as the national landscape appears to favor the Democrats. Battleground Senate races in Ohio and Texas each witnessed over $500 million in advertising expenditure, according to AdImpact, as Democrats challenge Republican strongholds. Notably, eight midterm races have entered the top-10 most expensive on record, with gubernatorial spending reaching a new high of $2.4 billion, an increase of over half a billion from the 2022 midterms. Prominent figures and groups, including Elon Musk and various super PACs, are heavily investing in the races as the election draws near.
Unprecedented Costs
The 2025-26 election cycle has become the priciest in history, transcending previous midterm and presidential cycles. As per AdImpact, ad spending and reservations reached $11.21 billion, surpassing the $11.2 billion from the 2023-24 presidential cycle. The major spending encompasses the House, Senate, and governor races, as well as down ballot and state legislative contests. House races alone saw $2.3 billion in spending, a sharp rise from $1.6 billion in 2022 and $1.7 billion in 2024. Governor race expenditures soared to $2.6 billion, up from $1.9 billion in 2022 and $0.5 billion in 2024. Senate races attracted $3.2 billion, matching the spending on 2024 presidential campaigns. These expenditure figures highlight the intensity of the races as Republicans strive to maintain control in Washington through the end of Trump’s second term. Recent FEC filings reveal the president’s MAGA Inc. super PAC allocated $277 million over the last six weeks, while the Republican National Committee transferred $44 million to its House and Senate campaign efforts.
Decision Desk HQ predicts Democrats have an 80% chance of winning the House and nearly 60% for flipping the Senate with Election Day approaching.
Record-Breaking Senate Races
The Senate races in Texas and Ohio are highly competitive, with substantial spending reflecting the urgency of both parties to sway the outcome. AdImpact reported $558 million spent in Texas and $500 million in Ohio. The California gubernatorial race and the Michigan Senate race have both entered the top-10 most costly non-presidential races on record. For the first time, multiple non-presidential races exceeded the $500 million threshold. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico raised a historic $64 million in the third quarter, while his opponent Ken Paxton gathered $18 million. Meanwhile, Elon Musk committed $158 million supporting Paxton through a super PAC, leading to accusations of trying to “buy his own personal U.S. senator.” In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown amassed $23.1 million, greatly surpassing Republican Jon Husted’s $5 million. Republican-linked super PACs allocated $113.5 million against Brown, as opposed to $69.5 million aimed at Husted.
Musk’s Financial Influence
Despite previously intending to scale back political contributions, Elon Musk has become a vital contributor in this midterm season. Musk allocated over $442 million to the midterms, exceeding his estimated $290 million expenditure on 2024 elections. He has heavily invested against Talarico in Texas, contributing $158 million to a super PAC that backs Paxton, sparking criticism of manipulating the political system. The top 40 donors accounted for $2.5 billion of this cycle’s funds, with Republicans consistently receiving more from these major contributors since 2018.
Crypto’s Increasing Role
As major donors tilt toward the GOP, the cryptocurrency sector has risen as a significant special-interest group. Before 2022, crypto wasn’t prominent among top donors, but it now surpasses labor in bipartisan interests. The industry has allocated about $176 million across numerous races to support potential legislative allies. Fairshake, a notable crypto super PAC, has invested substantial amounts in various candidates, including both Democrats and Republicans, and planned a dedicated $30 million campaign in Ohio against Brown’s Senate bid following their earlier efforts to unseat him in 2024 elections.
Costly House Races
Democrats, determined to reclaim the House, are channeling substantial resources into competitive races. Eight House elections from this cycle rank among the most expensive on record. North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District saw $30 million spent on Democrat Don Davis, and $23 million on Republican Laurie Buckhout. Florida’s 25th District faced equal spending from both parties, while New York’s 17th District totaled $47 million. Michigan and Texas races also reached high expenditure levels.
The upcoming election will reveal the outcome of these costly political battles, determining which investments paid off in the race for control of Congress.
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