Last month, The Athletic published Mike Sando’s annual Quarterback Tiers survey, which evaluates NFL quarterbacks. The assessment involved a panel of NFL coaches, executives, and insiders. This year, readers were invited to participate by voting on quarterback tiers, ranging from Tier 1 (elite, franchise quarterbacks) to Tier 5 (not an NFL starter). Over 45,000 readers cast more than half a million votes. Readers and experts showed similar overall rankings for the 35 quarterbacks. However, deeper analysis revealed a distinct home-team bias.
Home-Team Bias Among Readers
The Athletic utilized data from its app to approximate which teams its readers support. Followers tended to rate their team’s quarterback higher than other readers did. Across all 32 teams, followers increased a quarterback’s tier rating, often significantly. For example, Patriots fans rated Drake Maye higher, while Ravens fans rated Lamar Jackson higher. On average, this home-team bump shifted ratings upward by about half a tier.
Comparative Rankings and Bias Impact
Comparing followers’ ratings to other readers and experts reveals notable biases. Tyler Shough of the Saints received one of the largest home-team bumps. Conversely, Browns’ Deshaun Watson received almost no favorable fan bump. He was consistently rated as Tier 5 by followers and other readers, reserved for quarterbacks deemed not good enough to start in the NFL.
Top-ranked quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford had minimal fan bias influencing their rankings, aligning closely with rankings from various fan bases and experts alike.
Readers and Experts: Similar Yet Divergent
Reader opinions generally aligned with the expert panel, with minor ranking fluctuations. Overall, readers rated quarterbacks slightly lower than experts, averaging 0.3 tiers lower. For instance, reader votes designated Tier 5 for about 10% of cases, while experts only selected it 2% of the time. This discrepancy highlights the difference between casual fan votes and expert analysis.
The most considered overrated by readers included Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, and Tua Tagovailoa. Differences in ratings signal experts’ higher confidence in these quarterbacks than the general reader base.
Specific Case Insights
Deshaun Watson faced allegations leading to differences in perception. Having started only 19 games over four seasons, Watson holds an average reader rating of 4.8, whereas panelists rated him at 3.8. Aaron Rodgers, contemplating retirement after returning for one last season, and Tua Tagovailoa, temporarily sidelined by injury, similarly reveal disparities between expert views (Tier 3) and reader ratings (Tier 4).
This analysis reflects both alignment and divergence between fan perspectives and expert assessments.
Leave a Reply