Five years ago, Baltimore faced over 300 homicides annually. Today, both homicides and nonfatal shootings have decreased by about 60%. The city’s homicide rate has steadily declined since September 2022, marking three consecutive years of double-digit decreases. By 2025, Baltimore recorded only 133 homicides, the lowest in nearly 50 years. According to a new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, Baltimore’s reductions surpassed other cities by 25%, without an increase in arrests.
This achievement wasn’t accidental or swift, nor was it solely due to enforcement measures. For years, Baltimore attempted to combat violence through arrests. During the peak of zero-tolerance policing, the city made up to 100,000 arrests annually in a population of around 600,000. This led to community distrust and continued violence. While arrests and prosecutions play a role in public safety, excessive enforcement harmed non-white communities without reducing violent crime.
In 2022, Baltimore prioritized violence reduction by recognizing that violence is often concentrated among a small number of individuals, groups, places, and conflicts. Data indicated that less than 2% of residents were connected to groups responsible for up to 75% of serious violent acts. This shifted the focus to specific people and conflicts causing the most harm.
The Group Violence Reduction Strategy involved in-person outreach led by community leaders. The message was clear: help is available, and ongoing violence will meet with a focused response. Those accepting help received life coaching, job training, education, housing, and relocation as needed. Those persisting in violence faced accountability from the police and criminal justice partners.
Baltimore also developed a service infrastructure aimed at reaching individuals historically recognized by enforcement only. This blend of focus, support, and accountability yielded tangible results. In the Western District, where the strategy was first implemented, homicides and nonfatal shootings decreased by about a third within 18 months, without displacement to other neighborhoods or increased low-level arrests. Over 94% of those who received support remained unharmed subsequently.
Past attempts in Baltimore had similar strategies but failed due to poor implementation. This time, a five-year plan was set starting in the Western District, expanding only when readiness was ensured. This measured approach faced criticism but prioritized doing what was right over what was popular. Violence reduction requires management and discipline, involving cooperation among police, prosecutors, social workers, community partners, and city agencies through regular incident reviews and coordinated responses.
Community involvement was essential, as those closest to the problem often have the best solutions. Research in other cities supports that well-managed, partnership-based strategies are effective. The objective was to decrease violence while avoiding harm to the wider community by pairing legitimate consequences with genuine support, focusing enforcement on those most responsible for harm, and including trusted community voices.
The outcomes are evident: families feel safer, youth receive necessary support, and businesses emerge on revitalized streets. While much work remains, and each life lost is tragic, Baltimore’s progress demonstrates that with focus, evidence, and collaborative efforts, hard problems can be solved. This underscores that cities need not choose between accountability and support; they can establish systems to provide both through diligent effort.
Brandon M. Scott is Baltimore’s 52nd mayor, known for significant violence reductions and investments in education, recreation, and housing. Anthony A. Braga, Ph.D., is the Jerry Lee Professor of Criminology and directs the Crime and Justice Policy Lab at the University of Pennsylvania.
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