Democratic candidates currently lead Republican opponents in three Texas congressional districts previously carried by President Donald Trump, according to a poll by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs. In Texas’ 15th Congressional District, Tejano singer Bobby Pulido, the Democratic nominee, leads Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz by 50% to 45%. Previously, Trump won this district by 18 points.
Similarly, in the same district, Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico is ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton with a 50% to 42% lead. Republican Senator Ted Cruz had previously carried this area by 9 points. The poll also examines Texas’ 28th and 34th Congressional Districts. In the 28th, Talarico leads Paxton 51% to 41%, in a district where Cruz had narrowly won. In the 34th District, Talarico holds a lead of 53% to 42%, following a Cruz win by 2 points.
“People are misunderstanding the Latino vote as the largest swing vote in America,” said Republican strategist Mike Madrid, discussing the implications of the poll.
The 15th Congressional District, which spans from Hidalgo County to Guadalupe County and is approximately 81% Hispanic, saw Trump winning by 18 points in 2024. De La Cruz secured reelection there by 14 points. The Texas Southern University poll shows Pulido and Talarico leading, a drastic shift that Madrid identifies as a significant change from previous weeks.
Madrid stresses that the significant swing seen in 2024 was regarded as a permanent realignment. Yet, dissatisfaction with economic conditions, which has intensified, is driving the current shifts.
In the 28th District, consistently held by Democrat Henry Cuellar, Talarico leads Paxton despite it supporting Trump in 2024. In the 34th District, predominantly Hispanic and equally split politically, Talarico leads, contrasting with its past support for Trump.
Madrid’s conversations with voters show economic issues heavily influencing their preferences, despite cultural conservative leanings. As both parties fail to address economic concerns, voters fall back on cultural affinities.
A national UnidosUS poll of registered Latino voters highlighted living costs and economic concerns as top priorities. Deportations also arose as a critical issue for many, especially in personal matters regarding family detentions.
Analysis from multiple polls indicates that a notable shift toward Democrats is present. Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia adjusted its ratings, viewing three Texas races as more favorable to Democrats, including the Senate and governor’s race.
Tightening races and divided opinions are apparent, with age differences prominently affecting preferences. Younger voters largely support Talarico, while older voters favor Paxton.
Despite past Democratic efforts falling short in Texas, analysts like Nate Silver advise caution in interpretations, with current odds slightly favoring Talarico due to national trends and campaign factors, not a singular poll.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and Talarico’s slight lead falls near polling margins of error according to current data.
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