Emerson College’s latest poll offers insights into the 2028 presidential election, revealing which Democrats have a lead over prominent Republicans, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Candidates often announce their bids post-midterms, although some declare earlier. Early polls indicate candidates’ electoral momentum even before voting starts. Such data aids donors and voters in assessing candidates’ prospects, with polls reflecting potential candidates’ initial name recognition.
The Democratic field is anticipated to be competitive. Names such as former Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg have surfaced as likely contenders. On the Republican side, Vance and Rubio are viewed as strong prospects.
Democrats Versus Vance and Rubio
The Emerson College poll surveyed potential 2028 election matchups, interviewing 1,000 likely voters from August 16-17, 2026, with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Buttigieg leads both Vance and Rubio by five points, scoring 49 percent versus 44 percent. Ossoff maintains a similar lead over Vance and a three-point lead over Rubio. Newsom shows a five-point advantage over Vance and a two-point lead against Rubio. Meanwhile, though Harris leads Vance by four points, Rubio surpasses her by five points.
Ocasio-Cortez faces fiercer competition, with Vance leading by two points and Rubio by five points. Representatives of these candidates were contacted for comments on these findings.
Democratic Primary Insights
Recent polls depict a fragmented Democratic primary. An Echelon Insights poll lists Harris in the lead with 18 percent, followed by Buttigieg at 13 percent, Newsom at 12 percent, and Ocasio-Cortez at 11 percent. Other candidates, like Ossoff, received less than 5 percent support.
According to Emerson College, Buttigieg leads with 19 percent, followed by Newsom, Ossoff, and Ocasio-Cortez, each receiving between 8 to 17 percent support. Harris garners 8 percent, with other candidates polling in single digits.
Republican Primary Overview
The Republican primary features a few leading figures, with Vance and Rubio topping recent polls. Echelon results show Vance at 39 percent, followed by Rubio, DeSantis, and Trump Jr. The Emerson poll echoes this, positioning Vance and Rubio as frontrunners.
Potential Candidates Speak Out
JD Vance
Vance indicated he might reveal his plans post-midterms. During a CBS News interview, he mentioned, “I have no doubt… [the president] will be very supportive of anything I ultimately decide to do.”
Kamala Harris
Harris hinted at running while addressing Reverend Al Sharpton in April. She emphasized her experience next to the presidency as a defining factor.
Gavin Newsom
Newsom discussed the idea during a June 2025 interview, hinting, “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path I could see unfold.” He attributes decisions to fate, suggesting opportunities arise in response to current realities.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Ocasio-Cortez’s comments to David Axelrod stressed enduring policy changes over personal political aspirations, describing her ambitions as transforming societal fabric.
Jon Ossoff
Ossoff dismissed presidential aspirations, stating, “I have zero interest in running for president in 2028.”
Future 2028 Race Developments
While no deadline for announcing candidacy exists, attention will pivot towards the 2026 midterm elections on November 3. These results could influence the emerging presidential race. Post-midterms, prospective candidates are likely to increase fundraising efforts, visit early-voting states, and solidify campaign structures.
Primary calendars and filing deadlines aren’t finalized, but following 2026’s elections, the race is expected to intensify.
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