Democrats may finish several seats behind Republicans in the 2026 nationwide race to redraw maps for the U.S. House. Their potential to catch up in 2028 depends on overcoming redistricting challenges that only they face.
Democratic Obstacles in Redistricting
Democrats in many states can redraw partisan lines only by bypassing certain constraints, including some that are self-imposed. In states like Colorado, New Jersey, New York, and Washington, redistricting commissions that ensure balanced representation make gerrymandering difficult. To alter these arrangements, Democrats would need voter approval to replace these balanced maps with more partisan ones, similar to efforts endorsed by former President Donald Trump in Republican-controlled states. Any procedural mistake in this process could result in court reversals, as evidenced by the Virginia Supreme Court’s recent rejection of voter-approved maps for failure to follow correct procedures.
“It’s going to be expensive, unpopular, and challenging for them to do what they want,” said Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust.
Impact of Recent Setbacks and Future Strategies
Despite recent setbacks, Democrats are still likely to gain control of the House this year. The Supreme Court’s decision weakened key provisions of the Voting Rights Act, leading to the removal of at least three majority-Black House seats in the South by Republicans. Historically, the party of the incumbent president often faces backlash in midterms, which could work in Democrats’ favor this year, as seen in Trump’s first midterm in 2018, where Democrats gained 40 seats.
Looking towards 2028, Democrats face tighter conditions as presidential election cycles often yield closer results. Court decisions allow Republicans to eliminate more Democratic-held districts, so Democrats must find ways to improve their redistricting strategies. Future census results may also pose challenges; shifting seats toward Republican states could see them gain up to 10 seats, potentially at the expense of Democratic strongholds like California and New York.
Democratic Efforts and Challenges
Democrats must navigate complex political landscapes to gain control over map drawing. Only Illinois and Oregon offer relatively easier paths to create winnable seats. In states like Colorado, New York, and New Jersey, Democrats must make constitutional changes to see significant gains. Maryland is considering a constitutional amendment to eliminate the state’s sole Republican House seat by 2028.
The struggle in Washington state centers on gaining a two-thirds legislative majority to change the constitution and redraw maps. Democrats hope to win legislative seats in states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to influence maps. Wisconsin Democrats, for example, aspire to gain up to six seats, creating a map reflecting the trends Republicans set elsewhere.
“If we’ve learned anything, we’ve learned that when you know a knife fight is coming — bring a bazooka,” said Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Devin Remiker.
State Reforms and Voter Support
While challenging, Democrats believe their voters support efforts to match Republican redistricting tactics. New York voters remain engaged, though any redistricting initiative requires state constitutional changes. Colorado, once supportive of independent commissions, now seeks voter approval to replace the current map, facing potential opposition from Republicans.
“Republicans are stealing votes of Americans all across the country, and Colorado voters will say: ‘Hey, you can’t do that,’” said Curtis Hubbard, representing Colorado Democrats.
Existential Threat and Changing Strategies
The GOP’s redistricting efforts emphasize the precarious position Democrats face. After the GOP gained numerous statehouses in 2010 and redrew advantageous maps, Democrats favored nonpartisan redistricting. However, current circumstances drive Democrats to rethink this strategy. Notable figures like Barack Obama, who once advocated for redistricting reform, now support aggressive map redrawing.
“I think they’re going to move heaven and earth to respond,” said Nicholas Stephanopolous, a Harvard law professor.
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