Prediction markets shifted on Monday following FIFA’s decision to lift the automatic suspension of Folarin Balogun. This allows the U.S. striker to play against Belgium in the World Cup Round of 16.
Balogun’s return changes the dynamics of the upcoming match. The U.S., previously preparing to play without its top scorer, now faces Belgium on more equal footing. This is significant as Canada and Mexico are already out, leaving the U.S. as the last host nation in the World Cup.
On the prediction platform Kalshi, the “USA advance” contract increased to 53%, up from the previous weekend’s mid-to-upper 40s. Polymarket figures indicated a 39% chance for a U.S. outright win, compared to Belgium’s 34% and a draw at 28%.
Sportsbooks adjusted odds after FIFA cleared Balogun. DraftKings changed U.S. advancement odds from -115 to -140, while Hard Rock Bet adjusted from -105 to -120. They also improved odds for a U.S. victory in regulation, moving from +180 to +155.
“We’ve seen a price change on the USA since the news got announced,” a Hard Rock Bet spokesperson told Yahoo Sports.
FanDuel altered lines similarly, favoring the U.S. to -122 to advance while Belgium shifted to +100.
For context, American odds mean negative numbers indicate the bet required to win $100. Larger negatives suggest stronger favorites; positive numbers show payout on a $100 bet, where greater positives imply bigger underdogs.
The Red Card and the Reversal
Balogun was ejected during the U.S.’ 2-0 victory against Bosnia and Herzegovina, after a video review. Despite initially no card issued by Referee Raphael Claus, the review upgraded the foul to a red card, triggering an automatic suspension under FIFA regulations.
FIFA’s Disciplinary Committee eventually reversed this suspension. Article 27 FDC suspended the automatic ban for a one-year probation. President Donald Trump commended FIFA’s decision, sharing his advocacy for Balogun through a direct call to FIFA president Gianni Infantino.
Belgium Challenges FIFA Decision
The Belgian Football Association plans to contest FIFA’s move, claiming U.S. political influence interfered. European soccer governing body UEFA issued a statement warning that such decisions undermine the game’s integrity and credibility.
“When the certainty of rules is no longer guaranteed by its guardians, the integrity of the game is at stake,” UEFA stated.
Former FIFA president Sepp Blatter chimed in, emphasizing that red card decisions should rely on rules and evidence, not political intervention. U.S. Coach Mauricio Pochettino confirmed he stayed out of the lobbying process.
European Leaders Oppose Political Pressure
The issue expanded beyond soccer, with European officials stressing sports should be free from political interference. A European Commission spokesperson highlighted the importance of objective and transparent decision-making in sports.
European Commissioner for Sport Glenn Micallef asserted that sports decisions belong to sporting bodies, warning against undermining their autonomy. Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot criticized the possibility of decision-making influenced by political calls.
USA vs. Belgium World Cup Historical Record
The U.S. and Belgium have faced off seven times in World Cup history, with Belgium leading 6-1. The Americans’ sole victory came during the first World Cup in 1930.
Their last encounter, a 2-1 loss in extra time during the 2014 Round of 16, remains a painful U.S. memory. That match featured all goals beyond regulation time, ending a memorable run highlighted by Tim Howard’s remarkable goalkeeping.
A win on Monday would propel the U.S. to its first World Cup quarterfinal since 2002. Belgium aims for its third quarterfinal appearance in four tournaments.
Potential Historic U.S. Advancement
A U.S. victory holds added significance, as the other co-host nations Canada and Mexico are out. The U.S. strives to keep North America’s hosting relevance alive, with teams like Argentina, Colombia, and France moving forward.
A defeat against Belgium would conclude all North American host participation at the Round of 16 stage. Winning, however, advances the U.S. to potentially face Spain or Portugal in the quarterfinals.
The match kicks off Monday at 8 p.m. ET at Lumen Field in Seattle, airing on FOX and Telemundo.
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