Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff currently holds a lead of over six points against Republican Representative Mike Collins in a recent Trafalgar Group poll. Published over the weekend, the poll emerges 50 days before the midterm elections set for November 3. This result adds to a series of surveys indicating a consistent lead for Ossoff in Georgia, a hotly contested battleground in these midterms.
While Republicans assert that the race remains competitive, pointing to former President Donald Trump’s narrow victory in 2024, Democrats hope to leverage Trump’s national approval decline due to economic concerns. They believe this could work in their favor within this closely contested swing state.
Despite Georgia’s support for Trump in 2024, the state backed former President Joe Biden in 2020 and re-elected Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock in 2022. The rapid growth around Atlanta, shifting the area towards Democratic preferences, has transformed Georgia into a battleground. The Democrats aim to capitalize on these shifting dynamics to bolster Ossoff’s campaign.
Georgia Senate Poll Results
According to the Trafalgar poll, Ossoff received backing from 49.4% of respondents, while 42.8% supported Collins. Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley garnered 1.3% support, with 6.5% remaining undecided. Conducted between September 10 and 12, the poll surveyed 1,091 respondents and reported a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points.
The Trafalgar Group, led by Robert Cahaly, a political consultant with a Republican background, has been noted for overestimating Republican support in certain contests, particularly in 2022. However, it accurately predicted Trump’s win in 2016 when other pollsters did not.
An Ossoff campaign spokesperson stated that Georgia is a contested state, and Ossoff faces significant Republican spending against him. The campaign is committed to maintaining momentum and securing votes across Georgia.
Other Polling Data
Additional surveys also favor Ossoff over Collins, who entered the House of Representatives in 2022. An InsiderAdvantage poll places Ossoff 7 points ahead, with 50% support to Collins’ 43%. Meanwhile, 7% of respondents remain undecided. Surveying 800 likely voters from August 16 to 17, this poll has a margin of error of ±3.46 percentage points.
An AARP survey shows Ossoff leading by 9 points, with 52% against Collins’ 43%. Conducted from July 13 to 16 with 1,060 likely voters, the margin of error is ±3 percentage points. A Wick survey from late June reports Ossoff ahead by 4 points, standing at 46.7% compared to Collins’ 42.9%. This poll involved 1,175 likely voters, with a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points.
Earlier, a Fox News poll recorded a more significant lead for Ossoff at 13 points, polling 56% to 43%. It surveyed 1,002 registered voters from June 23 to 27 with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
Prediction Markets and Response
Prediction markets favor Ossoff, assigning him a 94% win probability on Kalshi. This probability has risen consistently throughout the election season. On Kalshi, his likelihood climbed from 75% at the start of the year to 94% recently.
These markets allow for trading based on political outcomes, aggregating real-money bets into probability forecasts. Though they reveal current sentiment, they do not always predict outcomes accurately.
Georgia as a Pivotal State
Once reliably Republican, Georgia is now seen as a battleground due to demographic shifts and Atlanta’s suburban growth. Areas around Atlanta turned more Democratic from 2020 to 2024, hinting at rapid leftward shifts.
Republicans presently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. To control the Senate, Democrats need to flip four seats, facing a tough map, as Vice President JD Vance serves as a tiebreaker in a balanced Senate.
Georgia, along with Michigan, represents one of the Democratic-held seats in states Trump won in 2024. Democrats also target North Carolina and Maine for potential Senate seat flips.
For further details on this development, please contact Newsweek editors, Jason Lemon and Anthony Murray.
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