Uncertain Path of Hurricane Marie
The future trajectory of Hurricane Marie remains uncertain, but potential impacts on Southern California over Labor Day weekend are possible. Forecasters anticipate showers and increased humidity, along with large waves and dangerous rip currents, especially on south-facing beaches.
Possible Landfall and Weather Effects
UC climate scientist Daniel Swain indicates that a direct landfall of Marie at hurricane strength on California is unlikely, with a 10% chance of a direct tropical storm landfall. However, there is a real possibility of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, which might cause flooding with a probability of 20% to 25%. Alternatively, there is an equal chance of no rain. Current projections mostly suggest Marie will veer to the west of the Baja California peninsula into open ocean, although a slight chance remains for a northern path toward Southern California.
The National Hurricane Center reported that as of Wednesday morning, Marie remained a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of approximately 70 mph. The storm, located about 1,300 miles southeast of San Diego, is expected to develop into a hurricane later the same day and may start weakening over the weekend.
Rainfall and Thunderstorm Estimates
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Oxnard forecasts a low chance of moderate-to-heavy rain with flooding and thunderstorms. However, there is a moderate possibility of light rain that could affect outdoor events and cause coastal flooding. Prepare alternate plans for wet activities, particularly from Sunday through Tuesday. The likelihood of widespread light rain ranges from 50% to 60%, while the chance for moderate-to-heavy rain is between 10% and 20%.
San Diego, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties might experience widespread showers over the weekend, particularly on Sunday, when mid-level tropical moisture is expected to arrive. Rainfall is anticipated to be under 1 inch. The San Joaquin Valley, the Mojave Desert, and the Sierra Nevada may also see rain during the Labor Day weekend.
Closer to the Central Coast and Bay Area, significant rainfall from Marie is less likely. Nonetheless, swells from the south may reach these regions, with rip currents and large waves posing risks over the holiday weekend. Beachgoers should verify the availability of lifeguards and remain vigilant about ocean safety through Sunday and Monday, when swells are expected to peak.
Coastal Flooding and Potential Fire Weather
Although less certain, coastal flooding remains a possibility due to large surf combined with higher-than-normal tides over Labor Day weekend, extending into Tuesday. Vulnerable areas may include the Alamitos Peninsula in Long Beach, Malibu, Point Mugu, Avalon on Catalina Island, and potentially parts of Santa Barbara.
There is also a small chance that Hurricane Marie might increase fire weather danger prior to rain, potentially resulting in gusty offshore winds, wildfire risks, and downed trees. The NWS office in Oxnard estimates a 10% to 15% chance of moderate-to-strong winds from the east. Regions of high confidence for fire weather include the Santa Ana and San Bernardino mountains, the Inland Empire, and the mountains of Riverside and San Diego counties.
Conclusion: Monitor for Updates
Forecasters stress that the forecast could change significantly with minor shifts in Marie’s trajectory. Stay updated with weather services for any adjustments in predictions regarding Hurricane Marie’s impact over Labor Day weekend.
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