The United Nations has issued a warning about the strengthening El Nino, which has already set records for intensity in its early stages. This phenomenon is expected to intensify wild weather worldwide, exacerbating environmental challenges. A measure of El Nino’s strength in a specific Pacific Ocean region has reached its highest ever recorded level this week, marking the 15th week since its formation, according to Columbia University scientists.
El Nino, characterized by the warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, distorts weather patterns globally. It will peak in several months and likely last until spring 2027. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a U.N. agency, has warned that it could lead to extreme heat, drought, and rainfall well into next year.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated, “Two months ago, I warned that El Nino was arriving on our doorstep. Now it is inside the house — and turning up the heat.” He highlighted the summer’s extreme weather events, including record-breaking heat and wildfires, and cautioned about potential future impacts as El Nino strengthens.
Most computer models predict that this El Nino might break the record for intensity when it peaks, later this fall. However, scientists aren’t guaranteeing this outcome yet. El Nino’s impact on weather will likely combine with long-term warming caused by burning coal, oil, and gas, making its effects more pronounced.
Columbia University climate scientist Jeffrey Shaman noted the warmest July ever recorded in the target region for El Nino measurements. He anticipates highly unusual summer temperatures globally in the Northern Hemisphere a year from now. Before that, rainfall pattern changes due to El Nino in the upcoming fall and winter may result in chaotic weather extremes.
Affected areas might include droughts and wildfires in Indonesia, India, parts of Asia, Southern and Eastern Australia, South America, and regions in Africa, according to WMO warnings. Meanwhile, some parts of the United States and Southern Europe may experience above-average rainfall.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized the opportunity for governments and communities to anticipate and act before the impacts of El Nino unfold, recognizing the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures.
“El Nino’s interaction with human-caused warming creates a harmful combination,” Guterres said. “We should focus less on conflicts and more on the accelerating climate crisis driven by fossil fuels.”
Despite ongoing wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan, Guterres believes the climate crisis requires more attention. He accused the fossil fuel industry and some countries of downplaying the issue. The U.N. aims to mobilize public opinion to urge governments to view climate change as an existential threat.
Much heat from fossil fuel burning gets absorbed by oceans. During El Nino, some of this heat returns to the atmosphere, raising average temperatures, according to Shaman. The heat persists even after El Nino ends, setting the stage for increased temperatures in future events.
Guterres called for improved early warning and cooling systems to counter extreme heat. Industries, including the garment sector, need safer working environments. He observed increased dangerously hot days in prominent clothing manufacturing hubs yet scant heat standards for these factories.
Ultimately, Guterres advocates for reducing reliance on coal, oil, and gas, warning of a more combustible future if current practices continue.
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