Democrat Josh Turek narrowly leads Republican Ashley Hinson in the Iowa Senate race according to a recent internal poll. Iowa has shifted from a swing state, supporting Barack Obama twice, to a Republican stronghold over the last decade, with Donald Trump gaining significant support in 2024. Democrats aim to expand the Senate battleground, optimistic due to Trump’s declining approval ratings.
Current Poll Standings
A Global Strategy Group poll, initially reported by Politico, showed Turek leading Hinson by 2 points, with 47% versus Hinson’s 45%. Trump’s favorability in Iowa is low, with only 45% of respondents viewing him favorably compared to 52% unfavorably. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from June 8-11 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Additional Poll Data
A Public Policy Polling survey of 557 registered voters from June 3-4 showed an even race, each candidate securing 46%. An Echelon Insights poll conducted April 3-9 with 337 likely voters showed Turek ahead by 1%, at 46% compared to Hinson’s 45%. Earlier, a GBAO poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters from March 10-16 and recorded Hinson leading Turek by 4 points.
Prediction Markets
Despite some polls favoring Turek, prediction markets currently favor Hinson. As of Monday afternoon, she holds a 58% chance on Kalshi and 61% on Polymarket to defeat Turek in November.
Candidate Profiles
Ashley Hinson, representing northeastern Iowa since 2021, flipped a previously Democratic seat and has Trump’s support. She was a journalist and a member of the Iowa House of Representatives. Josh Turek, representing southwestern Iowa since 2023, is a former Paralympic wheelchair basketball player and presents himself as a moderate capable of winning Trump’s supporters. Turek aims to secure a district that voted for Trump thrice.
Political Shifts in Iowa
From a battleground state, Iowa turned Republican over recent years, Trump winning by 10 points in 2016, 8 points in 2020, and 13 points in 2024. Democrats aim to regain support of working-class white voters, crucial for flipping the state. Trump’s policies and global events impacting trade and oil prices present challenges for Republicans.
Forecasts still favor Republicans in Iowa. Cook Political Report labels the race as Lean Republican. Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysts note Hinson’s cash advantage despite a narrow Republican edge.
Democrats’ Senate Chances
During midterms, the president’s party often loses congressional seats, boosting Democrats’ hope for House control. However, the Senate map demands significant Democratic gains. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, needing Democrats to flip four seats for control. Key targets include North Carolina, Maine, and defending seats in Georgia and Michigan.
If Democrats win those crucial races, Republicans would still have a 51-49 edge, thus attention shifts to more conservative states like Iowa for potential gains. Prediction markets currently project continued Republican Senate control.
For details, contact Newsweek editors Gabe Whisnant and Anthony Murray.
Leave a Reply