Democrat James Talarico is gaining traction in the Texas race for the U.S. Senate. Recent developments show his advantage over Trump-supported Republican Ken Paxton has entered prediction markets. On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, Talarico now leads.
On Kalshi, Talarico has an approximate 56% chance of winning, compared to Paxton’s 44%. This marks the first time Talarico takes the lead on Kalshi, coinciding with a period of competitive polling in a historically Republican state. The shift occurred at the beginning of Wednesday.
Polymarket presents a similar scenario, with Talarico at a 52% chance, while Paxton stands at 48%. This initial lean towards Talarico happened around 2:30 p.m. on Tuesday.
Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor at Columbia University, commented that this shift represents a significant change, possibly the largest in the midterms. He noted that while Paxton might be a flawed candidate, any Democratic progress in Texas would significantly impact Republican politics, giving Democrats an opportunity for a Senate majority.
Texas remains a Republican stronghold. President Donald Trump secured the state in the 2024 election by a wide margin, and Democrats have struggled to win Senate seats there for decades. Currently, Republicans hold a 53-45 majority in the Senate, excluding independents Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who side with Democrats. Flipping the Texas seat is crucial for both parties.
Polling Insights
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll last month placed Talarico ahead with 45% over Paxton’s 40%. A Fox News poll followed, showing Talarico leading 51% to 48%, within the margin of error. Talarico further leads among highly motivated and interested voters, according to this analysis.
The Fox survey sampled 1,006 registered Texas voters between July 23 and July 27, with a 3% margin of error.
The Texas Pulse survey by ReconMR for the Texas A&M Bush School also shows Talarico leading Paxton 47% to 43% among likely voters, highlighting a shift from June when both candidates were tied. This survey questioned 619 likely voters from July 27 to July 30, with a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points, indicating a close race.
Elsewhere, Decision Desk HQ regards the contest as a toss-up, with a slight preference for Talarico in its recent forecast. The Cook Political Report classifies it as Lean Republican.
Implications for Paxton
Paxton’s primary challenge lies in unifying moderates and independents after a tough primary against Senator John Cornyn. According to the Texas Pulse survey, Talarico’s support among independents has increased from 14 points to 23 points since June.
Paxton also faces renewed scrutiny over past political controversies, while Talarico’s campaign has outpaced Paxton’s in fundraising, providing Democrats a chance to turn the momentum into a robust statewide effort.
Despite these developments, Texas’s inherent Republican advantage remains. Prediction-market values can shift quickly with minimal new data. However, the recent changes show that Talarico is not just ahead in individual polls but also in broader market predictions.
This Texas race increasingly stands out as one of the year’s most pivotal and competitive U.S. Senate contests.
For further inquiries, reach out to Newsweek editor Edward T. Cummins.
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