In the 2026 midterm elections, Democratic candidates regained significant support among key demographic groups, reversing many of the gains President Donald Trump achieved in the 2024 presidential election. According to The AP Voter Poll, a comprehensive survey of over 100,000 voters across all 50 states, young voters notably shifted to the left. Democratic candidates received much more support from voters under 30 compared to the 2024 AP VoteCast survey where Vice President Kamala Harris was the Democratic figure.
Insights from the 2026 Midterm Elections
The survey highlighted notable shifts:
• Young voters strongly supported Democratic candidates, with about 70% of those under 30 voting for Democrats in their local U.S. House races, compared to only 30% for Republicans. This marked a significant shift from 2024.
• Hispanic voters, who previously leaned toward Trump, moved towards Democrats. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico won the Senate seat, largely due to Hispanic support.
• Black voters, especially Black men, returned to the Democratic fold, with 90% supporting Democratic House candidates, up from about 80% for Harris in 2024.
• Moderate voters increased support for Democrats, particularly in key Senate races where Democrats flipped seats. Two-thirds voted for Democrats, up from 60% support for Harris.
• Lower-income voters facing economic struggles shifted towards Democrats. More than half of those with incomes under $50,000 supported Democratic candidates, motivated by concerns over the cost of living.
Youth Support for Democratic Candidates
Young voters displayed a notable shift towards Democratic candidates in 2026, reversing their previous support for Trump. Around 7 in 10 voters under 30 chose Democratic candidates in their U.S. House races. The dissatisfaction among younger voters was clear, with about half expressing anger about the country’s direction. In Senate races, young voters’ support played a crucial role in Democratic victories in Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina.
Hispanic Voters’ Shift
Hispanic voters’ support for Democrats increased in 2026. About 60% supported Democratic candidates in House races, reflecting a major shift from the previous election. This trend was crucial in races like the Texas Senate, where James Talarico’s victory was partly due to strong Hispanic support. Even in Florida, despite Republican Ashley Moody’s narrow win, the support from Hispanic voters diminished compared to Trump’s previous win.
Black Voter Dynamics
The Republican gains among Black voters in 2024 did not persist. Only 10% of Black male voters backed Republicans in 2026, down from 25% for Trump. About 90% of Black voters supported Democratic candidates. This was important in races such as in Georgia, where Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman governor with significant support from Black voters. In Florida, Republican Byron Donalds faced limited success among Black voters.
Moderate Voter Influence
Moderate voters showed increased support for Democrats in 2026. Two-thirds of moderates supported Democratic candidates in House races. Many moderates believed Congress was not doing enough to check the presidency and were concerned about inflation. This support was critical in Senate upsets, with Democrats winning substantial moderate backing in Kansas, Iowa, and North Carolina.
Economic Concerns Drive Lower-Income Voters
Economic concerns significantly influenced lower-income voters’ shift towards Democrats. With over half of voters earning under $50,000 supporting Democratic candidates, economic issues, especially the cost of living, were central to their voting decisions. These voters reported more concern about basic expenses than higher-income groups.
The AP Voter Poll, involving over 100,000 interviews, was conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press and major news networks. It used a mix of probability and non-probability-based interviews conducted nationwide, highlighting demographic trends in this important election cycle.
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