Meta is entering the prediction market sector with a new app called Arena, designed to compete with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has instructed his team to develop this standalone app, according to internal sources. The New York Times initially reported on Meta’s plans, with NPR later obtaining internal documents that provide further insights.
The app allows users to predict the outcome of real-world events using a virtual currency rather than real money. This currency is distributed to users daily and can be used to place bets on different events. While established sites like Kalshi and Polymarket handle billions in real-money bets each week, Meta’s approach focuses on virtual transactions.
Meta plans to leverage artificial intelligence to power the app. Their large language model, Llama, will automatically generate questions based on trending topics. The app’s AI will also make personalized market suggestions to users. Importantly, the AI will resolve market outcomes by confirming whether events occur, promising near real-time decisions.
This app is a rebuild of Meta’s previous attempt at a prediction market app, Forecast, which ran from 2020 until it was discontinued due to high manual curation costs. The current prototype, known internally as “Antwerp” or “FBForecast,” will undergo internal testing before a release on iPhone and Android devices. The exact launch date remains unspecified, and Meta has not commented publicly on the project.
Launching without real-money wagering might help Meta navigate complex regulatory landscapes. Daniel Wallach, a gaming lawyer, suggests that a virtual currency model gives Meta time to secure federal licenses and for legal issues around prediction markets to stabilize. Currently, over 30 lawsuits are challenging the industry’s legality, with uncertainty expected to linger for a year or two.
Despite potential legal challenges, Meta’s entry marks one of the largest Silicon Valley forays into prediction markets. Other companies, including traditional gambling platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel, have already ventured into this domain. Meta joins a growing list of more than 70 companies exploring prediction market services, appealing to the vast user base across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads.
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