Representative Max Miller is trailing behind Democratic challenger Brian Poindexter in the polls for Ohio’s 7th District. This shift comes as Miller opts to continue his campaign amidst serious abuse allegations and missed deadlines to withdraw from the race. A recent Tavern Research poll shows Poindexter leading by 8 percentage points.
The district, primarily suburban and rural, had previously shown strong support for former President Donald Trump, who won by 11 points. However, the allegations against Miller, which include claims of threatening with a firearm and physical assault by his ex-wife Emily Moreno, have significantly impacted his reelection campaign. Notably, Moreno has accused Miller of violent acts such as throwing hot water at her and fracturing their child’s collarbone.
Despite denying all charges, including through a statement from his spokesperson emphasizing joint custody as evidence, Miller’s reputation is under pressure. Democrats view this situation as a potential opportunity to gain a seat in the midterm elections.
Struggles in Polling and Favorability
The Tavern Research poll indicates that 54 percent of respondents support Poindexter, while 46 percent prefer Miller. Miller’s unfavorable rating stands at 50 percent, compared to a 39 percent favorability, contrasting with Poindexter’s 41 percent favorable and 25 percent unfavorable ratings. This survey involved 635 likely voters, with a margin of error of 4.8 points.
Similarly, a co/efficient poll highlighted a more considerable gap, suggesting Poindexter leads with 47 percent to Miller’s 33 percent. With 48 percent of voters indicating the allegations influenced their voting intentions, the pollster remarked on the unlikelihood of a victory path for Miller. Conducted with 615 likely voters, the poll’s margin of error was 3.94 points.
Election Forecasters and Democratic Strategy
Election analysts from the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have shifted the district into the ‘toss-up’ category due to these allegations. The DCCC has boosted Poindexter’s campaign by adding him to its “Red to Blue” program, indicating a high-priority target for house seats. Representative Suzan DelBene praised Poindexter as a leader Ohio families deserve.
Prediction Markets and Calls to Withdraw
Prediction markets reflect Poindexter’s favorable chances, with an 80 percent probability of winning on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. These markets gauge trader sentiment in real-time, although they do not guarantee future predictions.
Several Republican figures have called for Miller’s withdrawal, including Senator Jon Husted, who publicly urged Miller to step aside for his own and his daughter’s best interests. Yet, not all voices align, as demonstrated by former President Trump’s decision to refrain from influencing Miller’s decision.
Potential Impact on House Control
If Miller remains in the race, Ohio’s 7th could be pivotal in deciding House control. Currently, Republicans hold 218 seats, while Democrats have 212, alongside an independent and vacancies. With several toss-up races, Democrats have a chance to gain a majority. On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, Democrats have significant odds of flipping the House.
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