Nevada’s Gubernatorial Race
Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford secured a victory in Nevada’s Democratic primary, setting the stage to face Republican Governor Joe Lombardo in November. This contest is anticipated to be a closely watched battle in the politically vital state of Nevada. Previously, Nevada backed Donald Trump by about 3 percentage points in 2024, marking a shift from its earlier support of Democratic candidates in the 2016 and 2020 elections. The state’s top office was previously held by Democrat Steve Sisolak. The Cook Political Report categorizes this gubernatorial race as a ‘toss-up.’
In the primary, Ford defeated Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill among other candidates. With his win, Ford demonstrated that candidates supported by the party establishment might have an edge over progressive challengers in statewide elections. If successful in the general election, Ford would become Nevada’s first Black governor. The Associated Press reported that Ford captured 66.2% of the vote to Hill’s 21.1%.
Lombardo’s primary victory was announced at 11:35 p.m., with him holding 91.4% of the vote. As a Republican, Lombardo is considered a vulnerable incumbent in the upcoming midterms. Although he generally aligns with Trump, he has occasionally distanced himself, such as not accompanying Trump during a Las Vegas visit in April. Concerns also arose due to Lombardo’s skepticism about the administration’s deportation strategies. Ford received endorsement from former Vice President Kamala Harris.
What Polls Show
Available public polling suggests a tight race. A March poll by Noble Predictive Insights showed Lombardo leading by a slim margin, with 39% support compared to Ford’s 38%. About 6% of participants preferred a third-party candidate, and 17% remained undecided. Lombardo holds slight leads among independents and moderates but trails Ford among Hispanics and women.
Lombardo’s favorability stands at 48%, while Ford’s is 40%. However, Ford remains less known with 27% of voters unfamiliar or without an opinion of him, compared to 14% for Lombardo. The poll involved 845 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.37 percentage points.
In November, an Emerson College Polling survey with 800 registered Nevada voters showed the candidates tied at 41%, with 18% undecided. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points; additionally, it indicated that 36% disapprove of Lombardo’s job performance, whereas 34% approve.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets currently favor Democrats in this race. Kalshi gives Democrats a 56% chance of securing the governor’s office, while this probability is 54% on Polymarket. For Republicans, the odds stand at 46% and 43%, respectively. The stakes remain high as the race unfolds with both parties aiming for victory.
Leave a Reply