The PGA TOUR’s 2026 FedExCup Playoffs continue at the Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri for the BMW Championship. Currently, 50 golfers remain, but only the top 30 will move on to the TOUR Championship at East Lake next week.
Bellerive presents a long par-70 course, stretching 7,448 yards with bentgrass greens. It has hosted several majors, including the 2018 PGA Championship, won by Brooks Koepka. Anticipate a birdie-filled competition, especially with rain expected to soften conditions. Exceptional driving and precise iron play will be vital.
Scottie Scheffler’s Dominance
World number one Scottie Scheffler ended his winnings drought by clinching the FedEx St. Jude Championship, marking his second win of the year. He dominated the field, securing victory with an impressive eight strokes lead, finishing as the only golfer with a double-digit score under par.
Betting Strategies and Player Odds
Given Scheffler’s strong form, betting on the “Winner without Scottie Scheffler” markets might be prudent. Although he is a favorite for the BMW and the TOUR Championship, betting odds as low as +300 may not appeal to all. Below are some strategic bets placed on other contenders:
- Chris Gotterup: +3000 at Kalshi (0.67u); Top-10 with ties +189 (0.75u)
- Hideki Matsuyama: +3000 at FanDuel (0.67u); Top-10 with ties +198 at Kalshi (0.75u)
- Collin Morikawa: +3800 at DraftKings (0.53u); Top-10 with ties +265 at Kalshi (0.5u)
- Michael Thorbjornsen: +5500 at BetMGM (0.36u); Top-10 with ties +312 (0.5u) at Kalshi
Chris Gotterup
Chris Gotterup’s victories this year, including the John Deere Classic, showcase his adaptability. Bellerive’s driver-heavy setup aligns with his skills. Gotterup ranks high in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and is in great form to repeat his success at similar courses.
Hideki Matsuyama
Hideki Matsuyama’s current odds undervalue his recent performances, having finished T7 or better in his last four appearances. He leads in birdie-or-better rates and ball-striking, making him a strong contender at Bellerive’s softened course conditions.
Collin Morikawa
Despite being seen as an underdog, Collin Morikawa’s precise ball-striking and driving accuracy make him a serious challenger. With a win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and consistently strong performances, his expertise on bentgrass greens could prove pivotal.
Michael Thorbjornsen
Michael Thorbjornsen is attracting attention with his solid all-around game and recent win at the Rocket Classic. His ability to succeed at similar Midwest courses indicates he could perform well this week.
2026 BMW Championship Pick
For the “One-and-Done” pick, Chris Gotterup is recommended, given his recent victories and strategic fit with Bellerive’s requirements.
Follow Geoff Clark on social media for more insights and betting tips. Tune in to the “OutKick Bets Podcast” for detailed betting content.
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