Abelardo De La Espriella, a right-wing populist millionaire with no political background, is on the brink of a narrow win over left-wing senator Iván Cepeda in Colombia’s presidential election. If preliminary counts are confirmed, De La Espriella, a Trump-endorsed outsider, will soon lead Latin America’s third-most populous nation. He will succeed Gustavo Petro, who four years ago became Colombia’s first leftist president, fueled by public discontent with conventional politics.
This shift might be seen as a swing from left to right, but Colombia is not simply experiencing a conservative turn. The country faces a volatile political cycle marked by sharp polarization, with widespread dissatisfaction with traditional institutions and unfulfilled demands for change. De La Espriella epitomizes more than a conservative shift; he represents what in Spanish is a leap into the void, or “un salto al vacío.”
In Colombia and other parts of Latin America, the quest for change has often overshadowed allegiance to specific ideologies. Over the last ten years, a strong anti-incumbent sentiment has swept the region, with voters rejecting current leaders, regardless of their political leanings. As economic and security problems grow, citizens seem more open to authoritarian figures they believe can address these issues, prioritizing results over adherence to institutional norms.
This anti-incumbent wave aided Petro’s rise to power in 2022, and it now propels De La Espriella. This pattern showcases a persistent challenge. The government’s consistent inability to tackle chronic issues like ongoing violence, severe inequality, and weak state presence across much of Colombia has repeatedly weakened trust in centrist political parties. Both Petro and De La Espriella tapped into popular discontent, branding themselves as outsiders confronting what they described as a decayed political system, though their methods significantly differed.
Petro did bring attention to valid concerns about poverty and inequality, expanding political dialogue to embrace marginalized groups like Afro-Colombians, Indigenous communities, and others long sidelined. Yet, like other populist leaders in Latin America, his prowess in campaigning did not extend to effective governance. His term was plagued by internal disputes, corruption allegations, Congressional bypass attempts, and failure to translate bold promises into lasting reforms. Notably, he dealt with severe fiscal challenges, a healthcare crisis, and a weakened technocratic system in Colombia.
Petro’s greatest shortcoming was in security. His key initiative, Total Peace, aimed for negotiated agreements with insurgent and urban crime groups after extended military pressure. Although well-meaning, outcomes were underwhelming. Armed factions grew, the number of combatants increased significantly, and the Colombian military’s morale declined sharply. Coca production surged to unprecedented levels, and violence rose again. Many Colombians perceived a loss of government control over the nation.
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