As August arrives, more than a dozen states are holding primary elections, intensifying the midterm primary calendar following a quieter July. Key Senate races in Michigan and Alaska will establish November contests for critical seats that could determine control of the Senate. Highly competitive House primaries in Missouri, Virginia, and Wisconsin offer insights into voter motivations in both major parties as Election Day approaches. Primaries for gubernatorial races also have the potential to reshape the political landscape, spotlighting state leaders during President Trump’s second term. With under 100 days before the general election, both parties face mounting pressure to show their political strength in the primaries.
Senate Races to Watch
Michigan Senate
The Democratic primary for Michigan’s Senate seat is a proxy battle between centrists, supporting Rep. Haley Stevens (D), and the progressive faction backing Abdul El-Sayed. They contest the Aug. 4 primary to challenge GOP nominee Rep. Mike Rogers, endorsed by Trump, for the swing state seat. Stevens has backing from retiring Sen. Gary Peters, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. El-Sayed is supported by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The primary reflects Democrats’ efforts to strategize after past battleground losses. Cook Political Report labels the race as a “toss-up,” but Decision Desk HQ considers it “leans Democratic.” A Republican victory here boosts their chance of retaining the Senate majority to 86 percent.
South Carolina Senate
Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) runs in an Aug. 11 special primary for a full term, following her late brother Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death. Trump endorsed Darline Graham, appointed by Gov. Henry McMaster, but other Republicans like Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, and Mark Lynch have entered the race. If no candidate wins a majority, an Aug. 25 runoff is expected, with the winner facing Democrat Annie Andrews.
Minnesota Senate
Republicans prefer to face Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) over centrist Rep. Angie Craig (D) for retiring Sen. Tina Smith’s seat in Minnesota. On the Republican side, former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya leads in polls. Despite Democratic divides, Republicans face challenges in a state shaken by Trump’s immigration policies.
Other Key Primaries
Alaska Senate
Primaries set for Aug. 18 might offer Democrats an opportunity to flip Sen. Dan Sullivan’s (R) seat. Former representative Mary Peltola, ousted in 2024, fuels Democrats’ hopes. The top four primary contenders will advance to the general election, complicating Sullivan’s path due to confusion with another Republican named Dan Sullivan.
Missouri 1st Congressional District
Rep. Cori Bush (D) seeks a comeback against Rep. Wesley Bell (D). Bush, a critic of Israel, targets Bell’s pro-Israel stance supported by AIPAC. The Aug. 4 winner is heavily favored in the Democratic district.
Florida’s 20th Congressional District
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) faces scrutiny for running in a historically Black district. She competes against activist Elijah Manley, former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, rapper Luther Campbell, and Dale Holness.
Wisconsin Governor
Democratic socialist Francesca Hong leads in the polls to challenge Rep. Tom Tiffany. The Democratic primary field includes David Crowley, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, and others.
Minnesota Governor
Republican businessman Mike Lindell leads in his primary with Trump’s endorsement. Critics challenge Gov. Tim Walz over fraud scandals. Despite the negative press, Cook Political Report rates the seat as solidly Democratic.
Michigan Governor
Rep. John James (R-Mich.) competes with former Attorney General Mike Cox and businessman Perry Johnson in the GOP primary. Jocelyn Benson leads the Democratic race.
Kansas Governor
Republicans vie to replace term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly in Trump’s favoring state. Trump backs Ty Masterson in the primary. Democrats Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson aim for their party’s nod.
Media Watch
New Michigan Senate poll shows progressive Abdul El-Sayed leading Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) by 15 points ahead of the Democratic primary. Despite endorsements for Stevens from key Democrats, El-Sayed maintains his lead.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear pushes Sen. Mitch McConnell for transparency, signaling readiness for a potential presidential run.
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