DES MOINES, Iowa — House Republicans are focused on Iowa as they aim to maintain their majority in a state that Donald Trump won by nearly 13 points in 2024. Despite Iowa’s recent lean toward Republicans, they find themselves on the defensive in three of four congressional districts. Meanwhile, polls are giving Democrats optimism that a shift could happen in the Midwest.
Republicans are dismissing these surveys, viewing them as tactics used by the media and political opponents to discourage GOP voters. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., expressed this sentiment to supporters in Dubuque, Iowa, emphasizing the importance of voter turnout.
“Nobody knows what’s going to happen on November 3. But I’m here to tell you, if our people show up, we win. If our people don’t show up … then we’re going to be scratching and clawing to hang on to every inch that we’ve got,” Emmer said.
Emmer’s comments came amid a narrative predicting a Democratic surge in key battlegrounds, which local Republicans are disputing.
Fox News Digital joined Emmer and other House Republicans in a two-district tour in Iowa last week. Emmer supported congressional candidate Joe Mitchell in the 2nd Congressional District and attended a fundraiser for Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa, in Des Moines. At these events, Emmer challenged the notion of Democratic polling advantages, emphasizing voter mobilization as essential.
The Republican leader pointed out that survey results may not accurately reflect voter intentions due to mistrust among Republicans.
“Republicans do not like to participate in surveys,” said Emmer in Des Moines. “There are Republicans who answer these surveys who may tell exactly the opposite of what they actually stand on.”
According to Fox News Power Rankings, three of Iowa’s congressional districts are competitive. Nunn’s district and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ district are leaning Democrat, while Mitchell’s race is considered a toss-up.
Nationwide, GOP members are concerned about Trump’s low approval ratings and policies that could hinder their campaigns. In Iowa, Trump’s tariffs and decision to import foreign beef are problematic. Agriculture, a crucial industry, suffers due to tariffs affecting equipment prices and the trade war with China impacting farmers.
Trump plans a $15 billion steel plant in Lee County, Iowa, to address steel tariff impacts. Despite challenges, Nunn and Mitchell remain optimistic about their campaigns.
“We feel very confident about the race. And that’s because we’ve talked to every voter we can, asked for their vote on November 3, and we’ve been traveling the district,” Mitchell stated.
Nunn stressed Iowa’s competitiveness in the national political landscape, highlighting his district’s significance and past bipartisan efforts against Trump’s beef imports.
Trump remains a key player, seeking to energize his supporters. Nunn shared details of a call with Trump, who expressed commitment to Iowa’s political presence and plans a rally in Sioux City.
Emmer reiterated the importance of voter turnout, especially in close races. He noted that the midterm outcome might hinge on about ten seats, making Iowa crucial.
“If Republican voters turn out to the polls, there’s hope. If not, it’s going to be bad,” a GOP operative told Fox News Digital.
Republicans face a challenging landscape but are working to unify supporters and emphasize turnout as a decisive factor.
Reporter Elizabeth Elkind covers politics for Fox News Digital, focusing on the House of Representatives.
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