A new alliance of Iranian opposition groups has emerged in Sistan and Baluchistan, as well as Kerman provinces, launching several armed attacks against the regime. Known as the People’s Fighters Front (JMM), this coalition has carried out six strikes, intensifying tensions in these regions. The question arises whether this resistance might expand and challenge Tehran’s control over the Sunni-majority province.
Iran’s demographics mainly consist of Shiite Muslims, with Sunni Muslims being a minority. Sistan and Baluchistan, Iran’s second-largest province, has faced discrimination for decades, contributing to current unrest. Mardo Soghom, an expert on Iran, noted that the unrest could stretch the regime’s military and psychological capabilities. Although the armed groups can’t seize control of the southeast, they might weaken the regime’s hold.
Soghom questioned whether foreign adversaries, possibly Gulf Arab states, Israel, or the U.S., are assisting these forces. A report from the Human Rights Activist News Agency (HRANA) highlighted a spike in violence, with 18 incidents in just 18 days. The JMM formed in December 2025, combining Baloch nationalist entities and the militant Sunni group Jaish al-Adl.
HRANA documented 63 armed incidents in Sistan and Baluchistan, and Kerman between March and October 2026, highlighting increased violence. Official sources reported 87 fatalities, with injuries also indicated. The coalition shocked the regime with assassinations of Basij paramilitary members, a group tagged as terrorist by the U.S. due to its connection with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Jason Brodsky from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) remarked on periodic unrest cycles in the region. Mohammad Karami, the IRGC Ground Forces’ commander and former province governor, was appointed due to his experience in dealing with such situations. Brodsky emphasized the importance of preserving Iran’s territorial integrity for opposition forces.
Khalilullah Balochi, a Baluch activist, stated that while group activities aren’t new, the attacks have intensified. Navid Mohebbi, formerly of the State Department, noted that JMM’s successful operations against regime officials have garnered attention, although distrust persists due to concerns over separatist ambitions and radical Islamism.
Mohebbi observed that JMM’s statements focus on dismantling the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist, not Baluch separatism. He added that although these groups can’t confront the regime in conventional warfare, guerrilla operations can destabilize the regime’s security forces. Success beyond Sistan and Baluchistan depends on building public trust.
Beni Sabti from Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies described JMM as spearheading armed rebellion, yet limited to Baluchistan. He noted that the regime’s control in the provinces resembles parts of South America where militias diminish government sovereignty. Limited media presence in the region hampers accurate reporting.
Sabti mentioned that the IRGC has a base in the region to oppose Baluchi forces, but JMM can occasionally target local commanders instead of higher-ranking figures. Benjamin Weinthal, reporting on Middle Eastern affairs, can be followed on Twitter @BenWeinthal.
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