President Trump’s gains among Hispanic, Black, and young male voters in his 2024 reelection highlighted areas where Democrats need ground. These achievements helped Trump return to the White House, but former Vice President Harris didn’t match former President Biden’s 2020 performance. However, these voter groups are now disillusioned with Trump and the GOP due to rising living costs, a war with Iran, a trade conflict with Canada, and immigration policies. This situation complicates the GOP’s midterm prospects.
Geoffrey Skelley of Decision Desk HQ noted Republican struggles among Hispanics and young people, with the economy as a major factor. Voters no longer see Trump as an economic steward, affecting GOP prospects. Pew Research Center data shows Hispanic voters, about 16% of the electorate, shifted from a 25-point Biden margin in 2020 to a 3-point Harris edge in 2024. Trump’s gains with Hispanic men and women were notable.
Pew Research shows a 2-point win for Trump among Hispanic men in 2024, whereas Biden had an 18-point lead in 2020. Harris led Hispanic women by 6 points, far below Biden’s 32-point margin. Experts attributed these shifts to Trump’s economic promises. Recent polls suggest Hispanic voters are looking for new solutions, with a Cook Political Report/Televisa Univision survey showing 18% of 2024 Trump-supporting Hispanics disapproving of his performance.
Decision Desk HQ polling indicates a substantial Democratic advantage, crucial in Hispanic-heavy states like Texas and Florida. The GOP’s immigration crackdown also erodes Hispanic support. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar criticized Trump’s immigration approach as detrimental to past supporters.
Trump also attracted 2024 Black voter support, though still predominantly Democratic. Black voter support increased to 15% in 2024 from 8% in 2020. Black male support rose by 21 points, with an 11-point swing among females. Despite these gains, African American disapproval is high.
Young voters also shifted from a 25-point Biden lead to 4 points under Harris in 2024, giving Trump low marks. Yale Youth Poll showed 68% disapproval among those aged 18-22, with 72% aged 23-29. A Cygnal poll highlighted young men’s concerns with living costs and job security. Key issues included inflation, cost of living, and housing affordability.
Jack Dozier from Yale Youth Poll noted unmet economic promises and policies affecting support. Trump is losing ground with traditionally supportive groups; Decision Desk HQ shows a 14-point deficit among white voters. Polling also reflects a decrease in Trump’s favorability among his past voters from 2024.
Democrats face the challenge of translating dissatisfaction into votes. Geographical areas, especially those with redistricting impacts, could sway outcomes. Decision Desk’s Skelley suggests that erosion in Republican-leaning turnout paired with motivated Democratic participation might influence margins.
ON THE MONEY
Elon Musk contributed significantly to Trump’s 2024 campaign but faced a setback in the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Despite indications of reduced political spending for 2026, Musk’s America PAC remains active in the midterms, investing in several key races, including the Texas Senate contest.
Musk’s America PAC has spent millions supporting Republican candidates like Ken Paxton, Sherrod Brown, and Mike Rogers while opposing Democrats like James Talarico and Abdul El-Sayed. Notable spending includes contributions to House races and various congressional matchups.
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