Republicans in South Carolina head to the polls on Tuesday for a special primary to choose their candidate for the U.S. Senate seat long held by the late Lindsey Graham. The race remains highly competitive as the election nears.
Darline Graham’s Campaign
Interim Senator Darline Graham, sister of Lindsey Graham, holds a lead in some polls, yet others show a tight race. Representative Ralph Norman has also shown strong support in recent surveys. With nine candidates competing and no clear leader, a runoff on August 25 is possible. South Carolina law mandates a runoff if no candidate secures a majority.
Graham, 62, was appointed by Governor Henry McMaster after Lindsey Graham’s sudden death on July 11. Though she spent years working behind the scenes in politics, she is new to elected office. Her campaign focuses more on supporting President Donald Trump’s agenda rather than personal political ambition. Trump endorsed her shortly after her appointment and has publicly supported her campaign.
At a recent debate, Graham emphasized her alignment with Trump, pledging to support his border policies and the potential end of the Senate filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act. She also advocated for transparency in healthcare pricing, citing the financial strain on South Carolina families.
Polls and Predictions
The primary race lacks a definitive leader. Ralph Norman, a seasoned conservative, touts his extensive voting record. Russell Fry positions himself as a possible runoff contender. Meanwhile, Mark Sanford relies on his name recognition stemming from his lengthy political career in the state. Businessman Bill Lynch remains in low single digits in most polls.
The most recent Quantus Insights poll shows Graham leading with 33% support, followed by 20% each for Norman and Fry, and 17% for Sanford. A different poll by co/efficient places Graham at 30%, Fry at 16%, and Norman at 15%. Hypothetical runoffs see Graham and Fry both leading against Norman.
An Emerson College poll showed Norman leading with 22%, followed closely by Graham, Fry, and Sanford. Undecided voters could significantly influence the outcome. Prediction markets lean toward Graham, with trading suggesting nearly a 50% chance of her securing the nomination.
Candidates’ Focus and Media Presence
Darline Graham’s campaign strategy highlights her family’s legacy and Trump’s endorsement, contrasting with her limited political experience. She maintains a lower profile in Washington, focusing on her current senatorial duties rather than active campaigning. Graham has participated in candidate forums and debates, mainly interacting with Fox News and local media.
The Republican nominee will likely be favored in the November election against Democratic candidate Annie Andrews, given South Carolina’s historical voting trends. The final Republican contender will face Andrews in November, whether determined in Tuesday’s primary or a later runoff.
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