In the South Carolina Senate primary, Republicans Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advanced to a runoff. They will compete against Democrat Annie Andrews in the November election to succeed the late Senator Lindsey Graham. No candidate reached the necessary 50% threshold in the primary, leading to a runoff between the top two contenders.
CNN and the Associated Press declared Graham and Norman the winners shortly before 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Despite endorsement from former President Donald Trump, Darline Graham, sister of the late senator, secured 32.6% of votes. Norman followed with 24%. The Democratic side held no primary as Andrews previously won the nomination in June.
The Death of Lindsey Graham and Its Impact
Lindsey Graham’s unexpected passing on July 11, due to an aortic dissection, shocked South Carolina. The state needed to select a replacement candidate after Graham, who had served since 2003, previously won the June primary. Trump recommended Republican Governor Henry McMaster appoint Darline Graham to complete Lindsey Graham’s current term.
Andrews Faces Challenges
Democrat Annie Andrews faces a tough challenge as she attempts to win in a state that has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976. South Carolina supported Trump by 18 points in the last presidential election. Yet some Democrats see potential for competitiveness in 2026 due to decreasing national approval for Trump and issues like inflation.
Norman’s Campaign Approach
Norman acknowledged during a campaign event that he wasn’t the first choice for many voters. “I want to be the third or fourth choice of everyone,” he stated, encouraging unity among supporters. Despite a lack of endorsement from Trump, Norman believes the state’s voters will ultimately decide.
He expressed eagerness to debate Graham and discuss her positions on key issues like pro-life policies, the death penalty, and government spending.
Andrews’ Campaign Strategy
Andrews told Newsweek she engaged with voters on topics like Medicaid cuts and gas prices. “We’ve seen a steady increase in fundraising,” she mentioned. She criticized Republicans for aligning closely with Trump, feeling it disconnects from South Carolina voters’ concerns.
Primary Election Results and Next Steps
Following the primary, Graham and Norman head to an August 25 runoff. They have a few weeks to persuade voters for party nomination in what is considered a safe Republican seat. Early voting occurs August 19-21.
Polling and Election Predictions
While limited polling was available due to uncertainty in Republican candidates, Andrews’ campaign released an internal poll showing tight competition. Independent polling remained limited but generally supports Republican strength.
Prediction markets heavily favor Republicans, indicating a 87-91% chance of winning. Election forecasters, like Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, also view the race as safely Republican.
South Carolina’s Political Landscape
South Carolina remains a Republican stronghold, having last elected a Democratic senator in 1998. Efforts to increase competitiveness have struggled despite high Democratic potential in cities like Charleston and Columbia.
The 2020 race saw Democrat Jaime Harrison gain attention but ultimately lose by 10 points. Similarly, in the 2018 “blue wave,” McMaster won by 8 points.
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