A recent study commissioned by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America indicates that messages focusing on North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper’s record on abortion have influenced support toward Republican candidate Michael Whatley. The study attributes the most significant shift to a message centered on federal abortion legislation.
The group, which has reached over 770,000 homes in North Carolina, is deploying a voter-contact strategy to influence the state’s competitive Senate race. They are targeting voters considered persuadable or those with low turnout history. Their primary focus is on abortion and Cooper’s history with the issue, including his support for federal legislation that could override state abortion limits. Cooper’s past actions as governor to veto state-level restrictions are also highlighted.
In 2023, Cooper vetoed a state law banning most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy, citing potential harm to women and families. The Republican-controlled General Assembly later overrode this veto. According to Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America President Marjorie Dannenfelser, Cooper’s veto was unpopular, swaying voters’ opinions significantly.
When it comes to the life issue, the issue that works best in North Carolina for the Senate race is that Gov. Cooper vetoed the 12 week limit, which is wildly popular in North Carolina and across the country, to stop abortion at the first trimester. He vetoed it and then his veto was overridden. It was a very unpopular move that really moves voters.
Further issues, such as Cooper’s veto of a bill providing healthcare to babies born alive after an attempted abortion, have also played a role in shifting opinions toward Whatley. The study examined the efficacy of different messages and predicted voter behavior in response to these messages.
Conducted by Evolving Strategies, the study involved a randomized-controlled trial with 2,607 registered voters in North Carolina. The study measured the respondents’ candidate and policy support and used predictive modeling to identify the most persuadable voters.
All messages were tested for effectiveness, showing a shift in the Republican vote margin from +1.7 to nearly +5 points. The “Fed” and “Record” messages, which criticized Cooper’s federal legislation support and his gubernatorial abortion record, respectively, were the most impactful. In comparison, “Soft Positive” and “Hard Positive” messages emphasized Whatley’s pro-life stance.
Among the most persuadable voters, the study suggests that these messages could increase the Republican vote margin by +12 points or more. Dannenfelser noted the significance of these findings, stating the messages resonated with voters who feel abandoned by the Democratic Party, either leaning Democratic or considering Cooper.
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