Six years ago, Dan Sullivan had a comfortable lead in his reelection bid, supported by a favorable political landscape and an inexperienced opponent. Now, the Alaska Republican confronts a different scenario. Multiple polls show him trailing Democrat Mary Peltola as he seeks a third Senate term.
According to RealClearPolling, Peltola leads Sullivan by roughly two points. A recent New York Times/Siena poll indicates a seven-point advantage for Peltola. This marks a significant shift from October 2020, when Sullivan was ahead of independent Al Gross by eight points and ultimately won by 13.
Vice President JD Vance recently rallied for Sullivan in Fairbanks, showing continued support despite current poll standings. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) remains optimistic about Sullivan’s chances, dismissing allegations against him and attacking Peltola’s previous record and connections.
The NRSC claims Peltola has failed in passing legislation and prioritizes outside interests over Alaska. Peltola’s campaign contends that Sullivan has contributed to increased costs for Alaskans. They argue Mary Peltola stands as an independent voice committed to lowering costs and challenging the establishment in Washington, D.C.
Challenges for 2026 Compared to 2020
Although Alaska’s polls usually underestimate Republican performance, Sullivan’s position is weaker than at a similar point in his 2020 campaign. In the previous election cycle, he maintained a robust lead over Gross, an independent candidate who had never held federal office. RealClearPolling and other surveys documented Sullivan’s consistent advantage leading to victory.
Gross highlighted his nonpartisan background and raised substantial funds, gaining attention among Democrats who hoped for a surprise win. Sullivan benefited from Alaska’s Republican leanings and President Donald Trump’s popularity at the time.
In contrast, Sullivan now faces a formidable opponent in Peltola, who held Alaska’s sole House of Representatives seat from 2022 to 2025. The political climate has shifted, with Trump’s approval dropping and the introduction of a ranked-choice voting system that favors Peltola as the sole Democrat on the ballot.
Why Republicans Support Sullivan’s Chances
Despite challenges, Sullivan’s political history gives Republicans hope. He has never lost a statewide race since his Senate win in 2014, and historical polling inaccuracies in Alaska are noted. The vast, costly nature of Alaska makes accurate polling complex.
Alaska remains an essential Republican state, with federal positions largely held by GOP members. Sullivan has backing from prominent figures like Vance and support from Super PACs attacking Peltola via television campaigns. However, his success hinges on whether Alaska’s Republican preference can overcome current hurdles.
The main question for the race is whether Sullivan’s affiliation with Alaska’s Republican base is sufficient or whether Peltola can transform her House coalition into a winning Senate majority.
Newsweek contacted editors Jason Lemon and Sam Wilson for more insights on this story.
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