Sweden prepares for an election that could alter its political landscape. Recent years have seen right-wing populist parties gaining traction across Europe, partly fueled by an increasing voter backlash against immigration policies, and Sweden is following suit.
The electoral battle is primarily between Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s center-right coalition and former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s center-left bloc led by the Social Democrats. However, the Sweden Democrats, a right-wing populist party, may enter government for the first time.
Historically linked to Sweden’s extreme-right fringe, the Sweden Democrats have gradually moved toward political prominence over the past 20 years. They first entered parliament in 2010 and by 2022 became the country’s second-largest party. The party has supported Kristersson’s minority government without holding cabinet positions, gaining influence over policies like immigration and crime. Now, Kristersson aims to form a majority government and has indicated Sweden Democrats could receive ministerial roles if his coalition wins.
This election will test whether Sweden Democrats are accepted into executive power. “There has been a shift of focus,” said Andreas Önnerfors, professor at Linnaeus University, referring to concerns about governance.
Recent polls show the election is tightly contested, with the center-left coalition slightly ahead at 50.8% compared to the right coalition’s 47.6%.
From Fringe to Mainstream
Swedish political parties historically maintained distance from Sweden Democrats due to extreme roots. In 2018, Kristersson assured Holocaust survivor Hédi Fried he wouldn’t cooperate with the party. The Sweden Democrats have since acknowledged connections with neo-Nazi movements in their past.
Under Jimmie Åkesson’s leadership since 2005, the party expelled extremists, moderated its image, and positioned itself as a mainstream party. Its policies focus on deporting those illegally in the country, imposing stricter citizenship laws, mandating assimilation, and restricting social security for non-citizens.
The party successfully combined typical right-wing policies with labor-appealing social benefits, resonating with ordinary people, said Önnerfors.
Immigration and Crime as Key Voter Concerns
Sweden Democrats influentially shifted national focus towards stricter immigration and crime policies. “Swedish politics has moved more restrictively,” Niklas Bolin, a political scientist at Mid Sweden University explained. The trend extends beyond right-wing parties, affecting Social Democrats too.
During the 2015 European migration crisis, Sweden received 163,000 asylum applications, marking high per-capita rates. Integration challenges, segregation, and gang violence, including shootings and bombings, became pressing issues. Since then, Sweden changed its immigration approach; asylum immigration reached its lowest since 1985.
Government policies aim to reduce gang violence. Shootings decreased significantly, from 391 in 2022 to 158 by 2025. Nonetheless, concerns around violence and immigration continue shaping political discourse.
Sweden Democrats have built robust voter support rooted in crime concerns and dissatisfaction with traditional parties. Their support is particularly strong among men, the working class, and voters outside major cities.
For Sweden, recognized for its low crime rates, expansive welfare system, and liberal views on immigration and equality, this election presents a crucial turning point. It examines shifts in political values and assesses readiness for a once-marginal party to gain significant power.
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