The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil exports. This decision comes as negotiations progress to end a disruptive conflict affecting the global energy market. Previously, the U.S. applied tough sanctions to curb Iran’s oil trade. This strategy, initiated by President Donald Trump, was visible after his decision to withdraw from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement.
These sanctions restricted Iran’s oil sales, mostly limiting exports to a few countries like China. Tehran faced steep discounts and expensive ways to bypass the sanctions. However, the recent announcement from the U.S. Treasury Department allows the temporary production, delivery, and sale of Iranian-origin crude oil and petrochemical products through August 21, 2026. Brett Erickson, a geopolitics expert, analyzed the impact of this decision.
The Revenue Impact
According to Erickson, Iran could potentially earn between $37.4 million and $51 million daily. Over the 60-day period, this could translate to $2.24 billion to $3.06 billion. However, Erickson points out that the situation is not straightforward.
The political rhetoric suggests Iran just won the lottery. The reality is far less dramatic,Erickson told Newsweek.
He explained that while Iran was already selling oil, the sanctions previously added costs in the form of discounts and laundering costs. The waiver improves profitability of an existing revenue stream rather than creating a new one.
Analyzing Oil Trade
Erickson arrived at his conclusions by factoring in anticipated shifts in Iran’s oil trade due to the waiver. Prior to the conflict started on February 28, Brent oil was priced about $66 per barrel, with Iran selling at a roughly $10 discount. Now, Iran is selling closer to the market price.
Under prior licenses, Iranian oil fetched a premium due to increased buyer competition. Erickson predicts similar market dynamics, suggesting a $5 per barrel revenue increase. Furthermore, easing of Iran’s complex sale operations will effectively save around $7 per barrel by reducing costs related to sanctions evasion.
Erickson estimates that Iran holds around 180 million barrels—the potential to increase daily exports to 500,000 barrels, adding to available stock. With an average of 17 days needed for delivery, Iran can advantageously sell oil during much of the waiver window.
He suggests that at 2.3 million barrels sold daily at an $11 per barrel increase, Iran could earn an additional $1.5 billion versus maintaining sanctions.
Future Projections
Erickson is cautious about long-term results. A dramatic increase in revenues is unlikely beyond this window. Even if the waiver extends for a full year, $10 billion could be a ceiling.
Ben Cahill, an analyst with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, highlighted that the notable change lies beyond the immediate period. The key is whether new buyers beyond China emerge, since logistics and payment setups take time.
The real significance is what happens after the next 60 days,Cahill explained.
The waiver could lead to a significant revenue increase if it sets the stage for permanent policy change. If made lasting, Cahill estimates Iran could see another $35 billion annually from oil revenues based on prior export averages, leveraging free trade channels.
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