Voters in Texas will decide the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in the upcoming midterms. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn faces a challenging race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. President Donald Trump recently backed Paxton, despite a previously good relationship with Cornyn.
Trump’s Role in the Race
Trump’s endorsement is significant in assessing his influence within the Republican Party. His endorsees often succeed, and this test is no exception. Paxton holds a narrow lead over Cornyn, suggesting Trump’s support plays a role in voter preferences.
Senator vs. Attorney General: Poll Results
Recent polls show Paxton leading Cornyn by slim margins. A Quantas Insights poll from May 21-23 shows Paxton at 52.7% against Cornyn’s 43.4%. The University of Houston Hobby School poll from late April reported a closer contest, with Paxton at 48% and Cornyn at 45%, indicating a tight race.
Global Strategy Group’s poll showed Paxton ahead with 52% to Cornyn’s 40%, reflecting a larger lead.
The RealClearPolitics polling average from March to May places Paxton at about 48.8%, Cornyn at 41%, with Paxton holding a 7.8-point lead. This widening gap follows Trump’s backing.
Prediction Markets and Expectations
Prediction markets strongly favor Paxton over Cornyn. On Monday, platforms like Kalshi gave Paxton a 95% chance of winning the runoff. Another market predicted a possible 10-15 point lead for Paxton, highlighting his growing advantage.
Polymarket data showed Paxton with a 77% chance of leading by more than 9%. After Trump’s endorsement, his likelihood of winning surged from 62% to 96%.
Trump’s Commentary
Trump voiced strong support for Paxton, commending him as a “MAGA Warrior” and attacking Cornyn for perceived disloyalty. Trump’s messages praised Paxton’s track record and loyalty, while critiquing Cornyn for not supporting certain conservative causes.
Paxton responded on social media, appreciating Trump’s endorsement and expressing commitment to the “America First” agenda.
General Election Against James Talarico
The winner will face Democrat James Talarico in the general election. Talarico combines faith-based values with progressive policies and has garnered substantial support. Despite Texas’s Republican leanings, he poses a robust challenge.
Talarico criticized both Cornyn and Paxton, highlighting issues of wealth and inequality. He emphasized a movement focused on working people beyond party politics.
Outlook for General Election
Political betting markets view the general election as competitive. Traders on Kalshi give Republicans a slight edge, with a 55% probability of retaining the Senate seat. However, Talarico remains a formidable opponent with a 45% chance.
If Paxton wins the runoff, traders give him a 57% chance of defeating Talarico. Cornyn, optimistic about his prospects, noted his previous victory margin despite concerns over Paxton’s vulnerabilities.
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