As another Independence Day passes with parades, flags, and speeches, a pressing question emerges: does the United States still believe in one of its foundational forces, immigration? This narrative is central not only to America’s history but also to its economic future. Recent reductions in immigration, including fewer green cards, travel bans, and decreased refugee and asylum grants, have resulted in a notable immigration decline. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that net international migration peaked at 2.7 million in 2024, decreased to 1.3 million in 2025, and is projected to fall to 321,000 in 2026, marking a historic dip.
Various concerns underlie immigration restrictions. A key argument is the perceived negative economic impact, especially on state and local finances. It’s important to address these worries. Any growing population does demand more public services. However, a study I coauthored challenges the notion that immigrants are merely an economic burden. Analyzing data from 2008 to 2023 across U.S. states, the study indicates that a 1 percent population increase due to immigration correlates with a 1.5 percent rise in private sector GDP. This increase in income is higher than the population growth itself.
The impact of immigration varies by state. In our simulations, a 1 percent population growth from immigrants can raise private-sector GDP by 0.57 to 4.41 percent, depending on the state. States like West Virginia, Montana, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Wyoming, with smaller immigrant populations, show significant effects. States with substantial economic freedom, such as New Hampshire, South Dakota, Idaho, and Tennessee, also experience large impacts.
These findings carry significant implications for the nation. Demographic trends are raising concerns about the U.S. economy’s future. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a slowdown in U.S. population growth over the next 30 years, from an average of 0.3 percent annually for the next decade to 0.1 percent per year from 2037 to 2056. With declining fertility rates, net migration becomes crucial, as the U.S. population might start declining as early as 2030 without immigration.
An aging population exacerbates concerns. The CBO forecasts that the ratio of people aged 25 to 64 to those over 65 will drop from 2.7 now to 2.2 in the next three decades. This results in a smaller workforce, fewer innovations, reduced contributions to Social Security, and fewer caregivers for the elderly.
States must also consider these implications. Although immigration laws are federal, national reform can benefit individual states. Representatives from rural states and those with less governmental burden may gain significantly from such reforms. Ironically, states apprehensive about immigration often face population loss and workforce shortages. They stand to gain the most economically from immigration.
Moreover, states can adopt policies to maximize immigration benefits. Reducing tax burdens, shrinking government size, and easing regulations can enhance these advantages. Making it easier for immigrants to work, start businesses, transfer credentials, and obtain licenses can facilitate their transition from newcomers to contributors.
Americans pride themselves on being a nation of immigrants, a beacon of hope and freedom, symbolized by the Statue of Liberty. A Gallup survey reflects a record 79 percent of Americans view immigration positively. For those fearing immigration might drain resources, our study offers reassurance. Immigration not only allows global individuals to pursue the American Dream, but it also benefits Americans from their contributions. For many states pursuing growth, newcomers are essential to building the future economy.
John Bitzan is the Menard Family Director of the Sheila and Robert Challey Institute for Global Innovation and Growth at North Dakota State University.
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