A map depicting the historical likelihood of snow-covered ground on December 25 illustrates how an El Niño winter could create a pronounced distinction between U.S. states where a white Christmas is almost certain and others where it remains improbable. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), a white Christmas requires at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.
Data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) show that the greatest odds for a white Christmas are found in northern states, mountainous regions, and Alaska, where snowpacks typically form well before the holiday. Across much of the country, however, a white Christmas is not assured. The NWS map indicates sharply decreasing probabilities across the South, Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast, where warmer temperatures prevent sustained snow cover during late December.
Weather predictors are observing the potential emergence of a strong El Niño this year. El Niño, known for warmer-than-average sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific, can affect jet stream patterns and impact North American winter temperature and precipitation.
“In a traditional El Niño pattern, regions favoring a white Christmas are the higher elevations of the western states,” AccuWeather meteorologist Peyton Simmers informed Newsweek.
During traditional El Niños, December is usually warmer than historically average, decreasing the chances of a white Christmas in the eastern United States.
Understanding Super El Niño
Super El Niño represents a notably strong version of the climate pattern, occurring when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific significantly exceed normal levels. This affects global weather patterns. These powerful events can shift the jet stream, altering U.S. winter temperature, precipitation, and snowfall.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center forecasts with greater than 90 percent certainty that an intense El Niño will develop during fall and winter 2026-27, with a 69 percent chance of it reaching historic intensity, surpassing previous recorded events since 1950.
Although the NWS does not officially label it as a “super El Niño,” they describe the event as “very strong.” In the U.S., El Niño’s effects are most apparent from late fall through winter, peaking between December and February.
Effects of El Niño on Snowfall
While forecasts suggest the possible rise of a strong El Niño later this year, the National Weather Service has yet to release an official winter outlook addressing its potential impact on U.S. weather and snowfall.
Historically, stronger El Niño events usually lead to more storm activity in southern U.S. regions, while delivering warmer temperatures to parts of the northern U.S. This may reduce white Christmas odds for states typically found in this category if warmer air prevails during December.
Nevertheless, some states remain likely for snow regardless of broader climate influences due to their cold climates and existing snow coverage. Alaska, for example, is consistently reliable for a white Christmas, as are high-elevation areas in western states like California, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and parts of Arizona and New Mexico.
Northern states such as Minnesota and North Dakota could face less favorable odds, as might eastern states like Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire, due to El Niño’s impact on winter weather.
The Great Lakes area finds itself in a medium range. States like Wisconsin and Michigan often benefit from lake-effect snowfalls, but El Niño’s warmth can affect predictions.
For southern states, the prospects remain low even without El Niño. Although occasional winter storms may cover regions of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia in snow, predicting such events months ahead is difficult.
Anticipated Developments
The overarching takeaway from the white Christmas probabilities is the ongoing relevance of long-term climates. States that regularly accumulate substantial snowpack by December remain likely spots for picturesque holiday scenes, even as El Niño influences weather.
With winter nearing, meteorologists will better assess the season’s evolving atmospheric patterns. For now, those seeking a snowy holiday should consider heading north, where history supports favorable odds.
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